Champions League, Italy one step away from the 5 qualifiers

Here we are, nothing is missing from the Italian fifth in the Champions League. Arithmetic security can arrive this very evening. City’s elimination accelerated a predictable but not yet predictable scenario. If Atalanta beats Liverpool again, or if Atalanta and Fiorentina qualify with any result, the extra slot is official.

the ranking

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Before Europa and Confederations this evening, Italy has a coefficient of 18.856, already considering those of the Roma-Milan derby. They precede Germany at 17.642 (over one point below) and England at 16.875 (two points behind).

the scenarios

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How can the official announcement arrive tonight? With two solutions, we were saying. 1) Atalanta and Fiorentina advance, even losing (the Nerazzurri) and on penalties after a draw (the Viola). This brings us to 19.384. But England loses to Liverpool and, even if West Ham and Aston Villa take all the points in the world, they can no longer catch up with us. 2) Only Atalanta passes, but still beats Liverpool: nothing changes, still 19,384 for us, unattainable. If instead Fiorentina passes, but Atalanta goes out, we will have to wait for the semi-finals with Liverpool still in the game and a Germany that already has Dortmund and Bayern in the semi-finals. We are always favourites, but we will have to suffer a bit.