«In that 1.3% growth in GDP registered Noonwhich Istat has just confirmed in the preliminary estimates for 2023, there is a lot of tourism. And this despite the fact that the sector in the South is not yet able to show all of its enormous potential». Mariano Bella, head of the Confcommercio research office, almost “claims” the contribution of tourism businesses (ranging from hospitality to catering to personal services) in the growth of the southern economy and consumption on the day in which his organization deems possible a 2024 a record for the sector in Italy. But Bella goes even further: «If tourism in the South branched out into areas still today considered unattractive, and I am thinking above all of the Calabria, GDP growth for the entire area would double. This sector alone is able to ensure an increase of at least one percentage point in GDP per year”, he underlines
The premises
The credibility of the forecast is based on factual data now acquired in the national debate on the prospects of the sector. The strong push of Campaniafor example: in 2023, according to the monitoring of Srm, the Society for Studies and Research on Noon connected to Intesa Sanpaolo, the region increased overall tourist presences (Italians and foreigners, that is) by 5% compared to the previous year, a figure higher than the national average (+4.6%) and double the Sud which closed at +2.5% due to three slowing factors: «A certain suffering in domestic demand in the final months of the year due to greater sensitivity to the surge in prices due to inflation; a smaller rebound in the international component, due to greater competition from the Mediterranean basin; and specific phenomena such as the closure of Catania airport in the middle of the 2023 summer season following the devastating fire”.
But the scenario outlined for 2024 is definitely moving at a faster speed. For the South and the Islands, the expected growth rises to 3.4%, equal to 85.2 million presences. And that’s not all. From the monitoring of 900 hotel companies, researchers find that 40% of southern companies have invested in sustainability and technology compared to 25% of the Italian average in the last three years. An attention destined to grow in the future with Sud which will reach 75% against 70% of the total sample interviewed.
The prospects
Furthermore, the results of the investigation conducted by theConfcommercio Tourism Observatory together with Swg, through a sample of 1,045 Italians between 18 and 80 years old interviewed between 11 and 17 June, representative of the population by gender, age, geographical area, fully grasps this opportunity. In the 4 months under review, Sardinia and Puglia for example, they are firmly in the lead when it comes to choosing longer holidays, with at least six overnight stays, that is, with Sicily in fourth place after Trentino Alto-Adige and Campania and Calabria among the top nine positions. But Sardinia and Puglia are also first in the South in the ranking of favorite destinations for a 3 to 5 day holiday, behind Tuscany and Trentino and ahead of Calabria, while Campania is in tenth place. Campaniahowever, which is in the lead among the southern regions, fifth overall – if the holiday does not exceed two nights (also in this case Trentino and Tuscany lead the general ranking, followed by Liguria and Emilia-Romagna).
58% of those interviewed confirmed their loyalty to theItalia (seaside destinations for 39% of those who will take longer holidays), but 34% say they are willing to choose destinations both nationally and abroad, while only 8% will take holidays exclusively abroad. The mountains rise to 13%, exceeding (11%) both the cities and the places of art, while the villages settle at 10%. «The forecast for turismo 2024 indicate the possibility of having the best numbers ever – says the president of Confcommercio Carlo Sangalli -. Today more than ever, the tourism sector can contribute to the necessary growth that our economy still lacks. The fate of this 2024, which will end with a complicated budget maneuver, depends on the overall stability of employment, the reduction of inflation and the expected growth of tourism in all its forms”.
The example of Campania is also useful here: from 2014 to 2022, says the Srm tourism report, the weight of tourist arrivals from the city of Naples alone on the total of the region has grown, from 15.5% in 2014 to 20.8% in 2022, reaching 1 million arrivals and 2.7 million presences. «In Naples the weight of foreign demand is 49.4%. The high national and international attractiveness of the capital city provides a boost to the region’s tourism demand and the synergy between the different types of tourism has positive effects on various supply chains.”
This explains why the added value generated by each additional tourist presence in the Campania region is among the highest in Italy. If, according to Srm, cultural tourism activates more wealth than seaside tourism (145 euros per capita against 128.2) and even more than food and wine tourism (151.7 euros), «the integrated offer of Campania and Naples increases the added value of the sector”.
