After Macron’s move, French political scientists evoke Italy

Rome, 11 June. (askanews) – A move that surprised everyone, a relaunch with doubling of the stakes that appears reckless: the decision of French President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the National Assembly in the aftermath of the victory of the far right Rassemblement National (Rn) in the European elections opens up potentially new scenarios for France in the early legislative elections of 30 June and 7 July. If Rassemblement National won, there would be a situation of “cohabitation”, that is, between a President of the Republic – who in France has decisive powers and political weight – and a Prime Minister at the head of the government, of the opposite political colour. There have been several precedents for this situation, but never before caused by the dissolution of the chambers after the European elections, and never with a far-right government so close at hand. And more and more often French political scientists and constitutionalists evoke Italy as an example of what could happen. Benjamin Morel is a constitutionalist, and professor of public law at the University of Paris II, and of political science at the Ecole Normale Supérieur de Paris-Saclay: “This can actually be an embarrassing situation, both in the case of cohabitation and if there is no If there was no majority in Parliament, it would become a real political problem. Today, no censure motion passes and it would mean that it would not we can no longer appoint a government. We would be in a situation of stalemate. A parallel can be drawn with Italy. They are called technical governments who, in Italy, are supported, in short, by the League. far right to far left, and manages current affairs until a better political situation emerges. This is a possibility that cannot be ruled out for July 7.” Pascal Perrineau, professor at Sciences-Po’s Political Research Center, believes it is extremely unlikely that left-wing and far-left forces will prevail at the polls, and even if they do, that they will be able to give Macron political and government support. Therefore he also believes the hypothesis of a stalemate and a situation of “ungovernability” is realistic. But what if the far right, the Rassemblement National and its allies, really won and went into government with Macron as President of the Republic? “Well, perhaps Macron can hope for the attrition of the right – explains Perrineau – by saying that the Rassemblement National is not prepared for the government and, essentially, it will be an experiment that ends badly, a wine that becomes vinegar. But it is really destined to end badly? In other countries today the far right is in power and governs. They run governments, alone or in coalitions, for example of the European Union. So it is a gamble, yes, but an extremely risky one.”