How is the Italian economy doing? The one that concerns us citizens, so to speak. The economy that we discover from price trends, inflation, energy costs. What month was June? And what awaits us between summer and autumn? These are some of the questions to which we will try to answer by analyzing ISTAT data and industrial production reports.
Stable inflation
In June, l‘Italian inflation has remained substantially stable. According to the data provided by theStatethe national consumer price index, excluding tobacco, recorded a slight increase of 0.1% on an annual basis, while on a monthly basis it stood at 0.8%, in line with the previous month. This apparent stability, however, hides contrasting trends that deserve an in-depth analysis.
Trends in Food and Energy Prices
The prices of unprocessed food showed a significant deceleration, going from +2.2% in May to +0.4% in June. This slowdown is partly balanced by the acceleration in prices of processed food goods, which increased from +1.8% to +2.2%. In parallel, the decline in unregulated energy prices has easeddecreasing from -13.5% to -10.3%.
Core inflation, which excludes energy and fresh food, remained stable at +2%, while net of energy alone it stood at +1.9%. According to Istat, food prices, for home and personal care, slowed down on a trend basis, going from +1.8% to +1.4%. High purchase frequency products also followed a similar trend, with a deceleration from +2.5% to +2.1%.
The industrial sector: turnover and production
As regards industrial production, for estimates we have to refer to the month of April, which saw an increase of 0.8% in the turnover of Italian industryboth in value and volume, despite a slight decline in the foreign market (-0.6%). On an annual basis, turnover fell by 2%, with a decrease of 1.7% in the domestic market and 2.5% in the foreign market. However, volumes recorded a growth of 0.5%.
Large industrial enterprises, according to the rapid survey of the Confindustria study centre, show stability in production in June compared to the previous month, with 53.9% of companies expecting production to remain unchanged compared to 48.8% in May. However, The perceived risk of worsening is growing, with 12.7% of companies predicting a contractionwhile the percentage of companies expecting an improvement fell to 33.4% (from the previous 45%).
There is no doubt that the majority of the sector must keep an eye on the situation Stellantiswith production in Italian factories. In addition to Mirafiori, in Turinother factories, such as Atessa where commercial vehicles are produced, are also resorting to layoffs due to a reduction in volumes due to the trend of the car market (electric ones in particular).
Bank of Italy forecasts
The forecasts of Bank of Italy are no longer reassuring. According to the Palazzo Koch Survey of Industrial and Service Companies, for 2024 companies expect a slight increase in sales volume (+0.2% overall; +1.0% in manufacturing and -0.6% in services), with a slowdown in price increases, expected at 2.3%. However, the expansion of investments is worrying, as it will continue at a slower pace than in 2023 (0.8%).
Sales in 2023 for all industrial companies in the strict sense (at least 20 employees) decreased by 1.4% at constant prices, an alarm signal that cannot be underestimated. In this scenario, Confesercenti also warns that, although the price reduction process seems to be stabilising, Tensions remain in the energy sectorThe recommendation is to maintain an adequate level of alertness to avoid future surprises.
