Next, la newsletter of Europa Today which every Sunday morning tells you what will happen in the European week to come, today edited by Francesco Bortoletto (for comments, suggestions or criticisms write to [email protected]).
If you have been forwarded the newsletter, sign up here to receive it every Sunday morning conveniently in your email
At the top of the agenda
France goes to the polls – Today, Sunday 30 June, the first round of early legislative elections will be held in France, called by President Emmanuel Macron following the resounding defeat he suffered in the European elections. The very aggressive opposition to the President is represented by the National Rally (Rn) far right and the New popular front (NFP), the coalition that brings together socialists, communists, environmentalists and the radical left.
Towards cohabitation? – According to the polls, the RN of Marine Le Pen and her protégé Jordan Bardella will emerge victorious from the polls, who could therefore become the next Transalpine prime minister. If that happens, you will have a cohabitation between the Prime Minister (to whom the Constitution entrusts mainly domestic powers) and the tenant of the Elysée (who would maintain control of foreign policy). Parliament will be balkanized and the French engine of European integration could jam.
Watch out for the seats – But the Transalpine electoral system is complex, and the division of the vote into two rounds (the run-off is scheduled for 7 July) makes it more difficult for the RN to obtain an absolute majority of seats in theNational AssemblyThis threshold is set at 289 out of a total of 577 in the Chamber.
Tariff countdown – The day of the entry into force of duties on Chinese electric cars is approaching, which could cost up to 38% more in Europe. Thursday 4 July is the day scheduled for the entry into force of the tariffs that the European Commission has decided in response to what it believes to be aid from disloyal states from Beijing.
Prevention is better than cure – To avoid tariffs, frantic negotiations are underway between Brussels and Beijing, with China hoping to reach a “mutually acceptable solution” in time. On the European side, it is Germany that is pushing for a compromise to be found and tariffs to be avoided.
Trade war risk – What Berlin (and not only) fears is that tariffs could lead to a trade war. Beijing is ready for retaliation that would hit cars produced in Europe, pork, dairy products and other agricultural products. The EU could also target medical devices, airport security scanners and steel pipes. There is a risk of escalation.
Other hot topics
Goodbye Tories, it’s been nice – Early elections will then be held in the United Kingdom on Thursday 4 July, called by surprise by the conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. After 14 years of government of Toriesit seems certain that the next prime minister will be Keir Starmer, the Labour leader who has moved the party towards more moderate positions. Labour is hovering above 40% of the vote, while the Conservatives are stuck at around 20%.
L’incognita Farage – But the real unknown is the radical right party Reform Uk (Ref), led by Nigel Farage, a historic figure in British politics considered the “father of Brexit”. With the single-member voting system, according to some projections the Ref (currently around 16%) could end up competing with the Conservatives for second place. It would be a very hard blow for the Toriesexhausted by the (mis)management of Brexit and an endless series of scandals.
The wedding between Ita and Lufthansa – The time has finally come for Lufthansa and Ita to tie the knot. Between Tuesday 2nd July and Thursday 4th, the formal green light from the EU Antitrust Authority for the acquisition of 41% of the Italian company by the German carrier is expected, after the last obstacles have been overcome.
The compromise – The issue of short-medium range routes and the risk of monopoly, especially at Milan Linate airport, which was feared could lead to an increase in costs for travellers, has been resolved by ensuring that other operators can enter the routes covered by Ita and Lufthansa with the two companies giving up a good number of slots.
European Parliament
VdL hunting for votes – In the meantime, outgoing Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has just a few days left to secure the favorable vote of as many MEPs as possible in view of the verdict on her reappointment, scheduled for 18 July in Strasbourg. After having earned the confidence of the leaders of the Twenty-seven, the EPP candidate now needs to broaden the base of her majority in order not to fall behind in the European Parliament.
The dirty fifty – The magic number is 361: this is the minimum threshold of votes to obtain reconfirmation in the Chamber. On paper, the pro-European coalition (EPP, PSE and Renew) has almost 400 seats, but in Brussels there is talk of around fifty “francs shooters” who could spoil von der Leyen’s party. For which the dilemma now arises: should we go fishing for votes among the Greens (disliked by part of the Popular Party) or among the Conservatives of the ECR (risking losing socialists and liberals)?
Reshuffles in Strasbourg – There is great movement in the hemicycle, especially on the right. The 20 Polish deputies of PiS could abandon Giorgia Meloni’s ECR to create a new group with Hungarians, Slovaks, Czechs and Slovenians. This would deflate the Conservatives and further split the nationalist-sovereignist front. But it might not be the only twist.
Conference of Presidents – The tenth legislature officially begins on 16 July, but the first deadline for communicating the composition of the political groups is set for Thursday 4. An important event on the European Parliament’s calendar is the Conference of Presidents, which brings together the President of the Chamber and the group leaders , scheduled for Wednesday 3.
Commission
Budget in the Eurozone – On Wednesday 3 July, Professor Niels Thygesen, head of the European Advisory Board for Public Finances (Efb in the English acronym), will present to the College of Commissioners the annual report on the orientation of budgetary policy for the euro area countries foreseen in 2025. The report will evaluate compliance by national budgetary policies with the Stability and Growth Pact.
Other events
Clash between the two faces of Iran – Friday, July 5, presidential runoff in Iran. The two candidates will face each other, reformist Massoud Pezeshkian and ultraconservative Saïd Jalili, after a first round that saw the lowest turnout since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Pezeshkian achieved the feat of obtaining 42.5% against 38.6% for Jalili, a former negotiator of the nuclear deal.
Five articles from the week just ended
Von der Leyen, Costa and Kallas: who will lead Europe for the next 5 years. The Portuguese socialist is on trial for corruption, the Estonian “iron lady” does not rule out deploying troops against Russia: here are the new faces who will support the reconfirmed president of the EU executive.
The EU confirms von der Leyen, Meloni abstains and stays on the sidelines (like Orban). At the Brussels summit, 25 of the 27 leaders of the bloc approved the reappointment of the current Commission President and the nominations of Costa (Council) and Kallas (High Representative). The Prime Minister is not having it, and now hopes to use her weight in the European Parliament to obtain “what is due to Italy”.
The Italy-France match on the EU vice-presidency: Meloni and Macron want to manage “Draghi’s agenda”. Both countries would target the same portfolios: competition, industry and trade. That is, the sectors at the center of the report that the former Italian prime minister is writing on behalf of von der Leyen. And that could be the heart of the new Commission’s program.
France Votes: What You Need to Know About the Election That Could Change Everything. For the first time, the country could see a far-right prime minister. The dates to mark on your calendar, the candidates, and the latest polls.
Zelensky relaunches after the new security pact with Europe: “Belarus in the EU too”. The EU has written down its commitment to support Kiev’s defense: military aid and funding for five billion between now and 2027.
 war with China){kind=link}