Caution prevails on the olive oil markets, despite the bombastic declarations on the production rebound of the next olive oil campaign.
While the most disparate figures are circulating on upcoming productions in Spain, from a minimum of 1.2 million tons up to a maximum of 1.8 million, and in Tunisia, from 300 thousand to 400 thousand tons, the oil world appears very cautious . In fact, the volumes traded are decreasing, in Italy as in Spain, but not the prices, which remain high.
Indeed, given the increasing requests for quality extra virgin olive oil, in particular with designation of origin for foreign markets, after months of stagnation the first appreciations have been recorded for some PDOs. According to Ismea markets, the prices of the Ligurian Riviera and Garda are rising by around 3%.
The increase, by as much as 6%, in the price of extra virgin olive oil in Lecce, Brindisi and Taranto is significant, which thus passes, according to Ismea Mercati, to 8.8 euro/kg. These are prices that are thus close to the minimum price for extra virgin olive oil in Sicily at 9 euros/kg. The feeling is that, in the Salento area, low-cost blends for summer promotions in large-scale retail trade have now been created (we’ll see some good ones) and that now there is a physiological realignment to true market prices.
Prices in Bari and in BAT remain strong9.65 euros/kg for Ismea Mercati, 9.6-9.8 euros/kg for the Bari Chamber of Commerce and 9.6 euros/kg for the Borsino dell’olio di Teatro Naturale. Little good or excellent quality extra virgin olive oil remains in the tanks and it is likely that it will run out by the end of June or mid-July.
In SpainHowever, the situation is one of waiting to understand the prospects for new production but also the real stocks available between now and November.
Trade drops but prices do not drop with extra virgin olive oil now stuck at 8 euros/kg since mid-Maywith very small physiological oscillations, while the virgin has prices of 7.6 euros/kg and the lampante at 7.1 euros/kg. Price differences in the order of 50 cents per kilo between the various commercial categories may appear significant for those who knew the prices of previous years. In reality, if compared to the absolute value of the oil we discover that the prices of extra virgin are approximately 10% higher than virgin and so is virgin compared to lampante. A proportion between the categories that reflects the dynamics of previous years but which in absolute value is very high precisely due to the high prices reached this year.
Significant price changes are unlikely in the short term, while some operators are already betting on the future, or on the oil “to be made”, a clear sign that there is little desire to speculate on the oil in tanks and we are already planning on the next harvest.
