The brain drain and the demographic decline of Calabria: an uncertain future for the entire South

Between brain drain and empty cradles, Calabria and the entire South is facing an increasingly uncertain future. The current socio-economic dynamics risk further reducing the added value produced in the region, which could fall from the current 22% to 20% in 2050 and 19% in 2060.

Brain Drain and demographic winter: a Dangerous Combination

The phenomenon of “brain drain”, known as brain drain, is not new to the South. However, it acquires particular importance in the context of the demographic winter that has hit the South in recent years, reversing the demographic growth trends that have characterized the region since the Unification of Italy. Depopulation and the loss of qualified human capital risk being the main factors of impoverishment in the South. According to an assessment by the Tagliacarne Institute, based on current trends and with the same economic structure, the added value produced in the South could fall to 20% in 2050 and 19% in 2060.

Internal and external migrations: an underestimated phenomenon

The Istat Report on internal and international migrations of the resident population highlights that Southern Italy is experiencing significant earthquakes in the geographical structure of the population. While the public debate focuses on the arrival of migrants, less attention has been given to the internal movements of Italian citizens, who see a continuous flow from the South to the North and abroad.

Impact on the Social Structure of the South

We have not realized the profound transformations that these waves of displacement are causing on the social structure and development prospects of the South. In the two-year period 2022-2023, the balance of population transfers between the South and Centre-North was 129 thousand units . Lombardy welcomed almost a third of these people, while around 30% of internal migrants came from Campania. Together with Sicily, these two regions represent almost 53% of transfers from the South in the two-year period 2022-2023.

The uncertain future

The combination of depopulation and brain drain could have devastating consequences for the South. Without significant interventions to reverse these trends, the South risks seeing its contribution to the national economy drastically reduced, with negative effects on the quality of life and opportunities for future generations. Policies for the relaunch of Southern Italy will have to urgently address these challenges, promoting investments, innovation and opportunities to retain and attract qualified human capital.