It is expected that productions of most of the world’s major food commodities will be adequate in 2024/25although extreme weather conditions, growing geopolitical tensions, Sudden political changes and other factors could potentially upend delicate global demand supply balances and impact prices and global food securityaccording to a new report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
From a production perspective, global rice and oilseed production is expected to be at record levels, while wheat and corn production is likely to decline modestly. The Food Outlook provides detailed market assessments for wheat, coarse grains, rice, fraspettola, sugar, meat, dairy and fisheries.
Focus on fertilizers
The Food Outlook also includes a special chapter focused on fertilizers, offering a comprehensive review of global fertilizer trade between 2021 and 2023 and a near-term market outlook for 2024/25.
The chapter outlines the series of shocks, including the war in Ukraine, that have directly or indirectly impacted primary nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. Rising natural gas prices have been a major catalyst, making fertilizer production uneconomical, while other factors, including shipping and insurance costs, as well as trade measures, have also pushed global fertilizer prices higher . The shocks led to a significant contraction in fertilizer trade in 2022 with a rebound in 2023 to similar 2021 levels.
The article shows that in April 2024, Fertilizer prices as presented by a basket of nitrogen, phosphorus and potash prices average $327 per ton, compared to $815 in April 2022. As prices fell, fertilizer trade volumes rebounded with nitrogen trading near its 2021 level.
Overall, the near-term outlook for fertilizers suggests stability over the next six months, according to the FAO, with improved availability and affordability among the three main ingredients. Future shocks to global fertilizer markets are likely to be driven by developments in energy markets due to geopolitical or other causes.
