China is trying to relaunch itself as a possible facilitator of peace in Ukraine. But the wreck of an American ship from the Second World War in the Pacific risks stranding its objective of showing itself as the only responsible great power. Between diplomacy and muscle, Beijing is trying to shore up its global image.
ATTEMPT which came at the same time as the Swiss conference on Ukraine, in which China did not participate. The line has also been reiterated in recent days: it is impossible to think of being able to achieve peace without involving both parties involved in the conflict. From Beijing’s perspective, continuing to send weapons to Kiev only serves to continue the war and “add fuel to the fire”. And so, in the narrative of the state media, the Swiss conference becomes almost a continuation of the G7 summit, useful for pursuing a “division into blocs” in accordance with a “cold war mentality” emanating from the “desire for hegemony” of the USA . Yesterday, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian attacked: «The G7 cannot speak on behalf of the international community. It represents only 10% of the world’s population and its share in the global economy is decreasing every year.” Implicit reference to the enlargement of the Brics, which new countries including Thailand and Türkiye could soon join. Interestingly, during the Swiss conference, the deputy representative to the United Nations, Geng Shuang, invited Russia and Ukraine to “meet halfway”. Words which, pronounced a few hours after Vladimir Putin’s “peace proposal”, sound like an invitation to Kiev and the West to give credence to the Chinese negotiating possibilities of making the Kremlin’s requests less “inadmissible”. Xi Jinping is thinking of a peace conference recognized by both sides. A project he is cultivating with Brazil and which could take shape around the G20 summit, where the Chinese president will be welcomed by Lula, a few days after the American elections.
IN THE MEANWHILE, HOWEVER, in his neighborhood Xi shows a less accommodating face. Yesterday there was a collision between a Philippine ship and a Chinese coast guard vessel near the Spratlys, disputed islands in the increasingly strategic South China Sea. “The Philippine vessel ignored numerous warnings and entered Chinese waters, causing a collision,” Beijing says. «Misleading and deceptive statements», replies Manila. The red circle on the map is always around Second Thomas Atoll.
THE SPARKS they have been lighting up for almost a year now, with varying degrees of intensity, approximately every three weeks. That is, when Manila sends supply missions for the small contingent of troops from the Sierra Madre, an old American ship improvised as a mini military station. In recent months, Chinese water cannons have been fired several times, while Beijing accuses the Filipinos of pointing weapons at its men. Three weeks ago, the Philippine army reported the “seizure” of food and medicine parachuted onto the outpost.
The new incident occurs just a few days after the entry into force of new regulations that strengthen the powers of the Chinese coast guard. But be careful, because it risks not being mere regional skirmishes. At the beginning of June, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr clarified for the first time what would trigger the request to the USA to activate the mutual defense treaty: the death “by voluntary action” of a Philippine citizen.
WASHINGTON he did not confirm, but there are many who consider this theater to be the potentially most insidious one. Due to the presence of multiple actors and the possible direct involvement of both great powers. The road to de escalation appears very narrow. In the first days of June, in Singapore, Chinese defense officials responded like this: «Détente? If he doesn’t change his position, only when Marcos is no longer president.”
