1 How many phases does the agreement include and what do they involve?
The starting point is the six-week ceasefire. In the first phase, Israel would withdraw from the main population centers of Gaza and a certain number of Israeli hostages would be released, including women, the elderly and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian detainees. Furthermore, 600 trucks of aid per day would be allowed to enter the Strip. Hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians would be allowed to return to northern Gaza. The second phase, with a permanent ceasefire, would mark a total Israeli withdrawal. All remaining hostages would be released, including the male soldiers, in exchange for the release of other Palestinian detainees. In the third phase, Hamas would return the bodies of the dead hostages. The rubble would be removed and a three-to-five year reconstruction period would begin, with the support of the US, EU and international institutions.
2 What are the most critical points?
For both Hamas and Israeli leaders, ending the war is a matter of political survival. But for Yahya Sinwar or Mohammed Deif it is also a question of physical survival. To implement the agreement, on the one hand Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would have to mediate with his far-right ministers to find alternatives to the “elimination” of Hamas. On the other hand, for an already troubled leader like Netanyahu to leave Sinwar and Deif free to celebrate the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza would be a political disaster.
3 What is the room for maneuver?
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, who was also Defense Minister, summarized: “How do you think Sinwar will react when he is about to accept and is told between the lines: hurry up and free the hostages, because we still have to kill you?” . The question brings out how difficult it is for parties to mutually trust each other. And this is also why the question of how to finally end the fighting was postponed until the final stages of the plan. In fact, if the release of the hostages foreseen in the first phase would be welcomed in a country where the failure to protect its citizens is for many a moral stain, it is unlikely that Hamas will hand over its more serious prisoners – women, wounded, elderly — without the guarantee that Israel will not start the war again after liberation. But this brings the problem full circle.
4 What are the risks for the future of Gaza?
Who should govern the Strip remains perhaps the biggest question mark. Hamas could exploit the ceasefire to reconstitute its rule. In the past, the United States has said the Palestinian Authority should be involved. But Israeli leaders, including Netanyahu, have always rejected the idea that the Palestinian Authority or even Hamas controls Gaza.
