Over the past two years, inflation has affected many products on supermarket shelves, and orange juice is no exception, facing an unprecedented crisis. Orange juice prices are skyrocketing, and orange juice concentrate recently hit a “new all-time high” on world markets.
Yellow dragon disease and climate change
The main orange producing countries are facing serious difficulties. In the United States, fruit trees in Florida have been affected for years by a bacterial disease that affects citrus fruits, called Huanglongbing or “yellow dragon disease”, which is currently incurable. This disease weakens trees, reduces yields and makes fruits inedible due to increased acidity. Big agrochemical companies admit they are helpless, even as they continue to search for a cure. According to Bayer, the risk is not just rising costs or scarcity of the product, but a possible total disappearance of orange juice.
Unfortunately, Florida is not the only region affected. Brazil, the world’s leading orange producer, is also battling this disease. At the moment, Europe is spared, but European production is not enough to offset the decline in global yields. This comes against a backdrop of growing weather risks and climate change further weakening an already fragile market. In addition to suffering from the huanglongbing, orange groves have suffered various natural disasters, such as Hurricane Ian in 2022 and Hurricane Irma in 2017, with losses estimated in hundreds of millions of dollars.
The Interprofessional Union of Fruit Juices had already warned last year of the crisis in the orange market, mentioning the drought that has affected Mexican and Spanish production, in addition to the droughts in the Brazilian state of Sao Paulo this year. Le Monde reports that, after a 2023 marked by tensions and very low production, the situation could worsen in 2024 with an expected drop of 25%. These risks, which drive prices up, are amplified by climate change, increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
Among orange juice producers, the concern is tangible and the term “crisis” is widely used. The Guardian reports that the International Fruit and Vegetable Juice Association is pushing to change the standards to allow other fruits, such as mandarins, to be added to orange juice. On the shelves, the consequences are already visible: in addition to the price increase, some brands are reducing the volume of packaging, moving from one-liter bottles to slightly smaller 90-centiliter bottles.
