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A few hours before the start of the European Council, no one is yet able to predict how Italy will position itself. The very tough talk of Giorgia Meloni in front of Parliament would lead to a rejection – perhaps in the form of abstention – to Ursula’s encore von der Leyen at the helm of the European Commission. The prime minister has contested both the method and the merit in the choice of the top European jobs. The accusation is that they did not respect the verdict of the June 9 polls.
The unknown of the snipers
On paper, however, the majority that formed around von der Leyen, the socialist Antonio Costa for the role of President of the European Council and to the Estonian Liberal Kaja Kellas as High Representative for foreign policy he would have the numbers. The three groups that represent them are worth around 400 votes, therefore above the quorum of 361 or the absolute majority. The problem, however, is that this vote is expressed secretly and therefore snipers abound. The rough estimate that is made in these hours is that there will be at least fifty. Unlike the president of the European Council, who will be elected at the summit that is about to open in Brussels, the definitive yes for the presidency of the Commission is given by Parliament. So even if von der Leyen is nominated by the European Council between today and tomorrow as the new president of the Commission, the chances of her passing the exam in Strasbourg during the plenary session to be held on 18 July are far from favourable. And this is where Meloni comes into play who, with the 24 votes of the Brothers of Italy deputies, can offer von der Leyen a parachute to pass the exam in the Strasbourg chamber.
A (different) precedent from Merkel
It also happened five years ago. Then the Five Star Movement represented in Brussels by Giuseppe Conte lent a hand to Ursula. However, the tones used by the prime minister do not allow easy predictions. Rumors gathered between Rome and Brussels hypothesize a differentiated vote: Meloni would vote against Costa’s election and abstain on von der Leyen. Does anyone remember that Angela Merkel did it too. But for only “formal” reasons, linked to the change of horse in the race and that is to the replacement of the then spitzkandidaten Manfred Weber (current president of the EPP) with another popular woman, von der Leyen. In fact, von der Leyen’s choice was fully shared by the German chancellor who had been with him Emmanuel Macron the craftsman. Here, however, it is a question of a “no” or a political abstention.
The risk for the majority
The president of the Republic Sergio Mattarella after the usual breakfast meeting with the prime minister and some ministers on the eve of the European summit, he leaked a message in which he warned that “Italy cannot be ignored” for the choice of European governance. It is certainly a message aimed at Brussels, Germany and France, which offers support to the prime minister. But it also has an internal aspect. Italy cannot be left out but it must not keep itself out either. Also because the dossiers that concern us are numerous and weighty, starting from the last one: the infringement procedure for deficit. A head-on clash with the future executive of Brussels certainly doesn’t help. And that’s what he’s been repeating in these hours too Antonio Tajani who is not only vice prime minister and leader of Forza Italia but also vice president of the European People’s Party. The risk is that in the end Italy will present itself to the vote with a government majority divided between those in favor (Forza Italia), those against (the League also reiterated this in Parliament) and abstentions, as Meloni could decide to do already at the European Council .
