The new president is enjoying the triumph, widely announced, but no less disruptive. In Mexico a result has materialized which in the current crisis of representative democracy is almost unique: the voters, for once, have not punished the government forces, which, on the contrary, have had plebiscite confirmation, with more high-sounding numbers than six years ago, almost reaching 60% of the consensus and trailing the current opposition by over thirty points
Qualified majority: a few days after Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory in the Mexican presidential elections, clear in numbers and with great international impact, but at the same time announced with pinpoint precision by the polls for once, this is the question that hovers in politics Mexican. Which is, then, the same one that the most attentive observers made a week ago, before a vote that already seemed obvious. Will Sheinbaum, with her coalition centered on the progressive Morena party, have the numbers, in Parliament, to reform the Constitution, completing what was just a dream for her very popular predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as Amlo? The numbers are still “shaking”, the majority seems within reach in the House, more difficult, even if by very little, in the Senate. We will have to wait for the final count and the proclamation of those elected. For the moment, the new president is enjoying her triumph, which was widely announced, but no less disruptive. In Mexico a result has materialized which in the current crisis of representative democracy is almost unique: the voters, for once, have not punished the government forces, which, on the contrary, have had plebiscite confirmation, with more high-sounding numbers than six years ago, coming close to 60% of the votes and leading the current opposition by over thirty points, which also appeared largely united (and centered on Pan and Pri, once bitter rivals), around Xóchitl Gálvez. Morena’s candidates are also imposed in six out of eight states, in the elections for governor.
The populist wind. Rodolfo Soriano-Núñez, sociologist and writer, explains to SIR: “The anomaly, in reality, is only apparent, given that these elections, atypical in many respects, have in any case confirmed the populist wind that can be felt throughout the continent. Outgoing president López Obrador has been very skilled in riding this trend. The reform package approved in February drew on the arsenal of the ‘good populist’, starting with the reduction in the number of parliamentarians. The current majority aims to vote for those who have no faith in politics. For example, in security policies, it has pushed the population to have blind trust in the armed forces and militarization policies. But Amlo’s six years of government had 70,000 more deaths than President Felipe Calderón’s dark period.” For this reason, the big question is “whether Claudia Sheinbaum will have the majority to implement a series of institutional reforms”. A prospect that raises some concerns, precisely because of this populist approach, the true figure of a majority that is conventionally defined as progressive, but which, in reality, is rather anomalous and heterogeneous. Of course, the new president presents herself differently than her predecessor, often crude and vulgar, “but the new president owes a lot to López Obrador, until now she has led Mexico City, she doesn’t know the rest of the country”.
The “heritage” of enormous popularity. In short, it is singular that faced with the novelty of the first female president of Mexico in two hundred years, the fulcrum of the country’s politics is the former president, as explained Javier Santiago Castillo, political scientist, professor at the Unidad-Iztapalapa Metropolitan Autonomous University, former advisor to the National Electoral Institute, who however does not rule out surprises. “One fact is certain. Amlo enjoys enormous popularity, inferior only to that of General Lázaro Cárdenas, president in the 1930s. One can agree or disagree with him, but among the popular classes he reconstructed the imagination of the Mexican revolution. He has implemented some welfare policies, attentive to the lower social classes, mixed with elements of nationalism.” Now, the baton passes to Sheinbaum. Will she just be an executor of her predecessor’s orders? The political scientist is cautious: “This is the real unknown. Those who study political processes know that usually those who sit in the chair are in charge. The examples are many. At the same time, however, Amlo has great popularity in the country, and the president will not be able to ignore this.” The expectation is that of strong continuity, at least at the beginning, on security, economy, infrastructure, and greater attention on welfare and ecological transition. Curiosity also for the geopolitical choices, given Mexico’s geographical proximity to the United States and its key role in migratory and drug trafficking routes.
The Church and the peace agenda. Another key theme will be the relationship with the Church, in an institutionally “secular” country, but with a large majority of Catholic faithful. López Obrador had meetings with the bishops, but also some very “direct” controversies: “he was astute – adds Soriano-Núñez – because he made sure that the liberalization of abortion took place through the judicial ruling of the Supreme Court. In this way, he did not put his varied majority into crisis. Furthermore, he has always expressed words of admiration for Pope Francis.” Sheinbaum, from a Jewish family, comes from a history of “secular battles” and feminists, but has signed the agenda for peace developed by the Mexican Church. The note from the Mexican Episcopal Conference, Cem, focused precisely on this priority after the elections. “We would like to congratulate you on your electoral victory,” the bishops wrote, addressing the new president directly. The majority of those who exercised their right to vote on Sunday expressed their trust in her to make Mexico a livable country, through serious and coordinated work for security, justice and the social fabric. The responsibility is immense, but so is the opportunity to build together with the different sectors of the country.”
The bishops recall that during the 2024 electoral process, “the National Peace Dialogue united Mexico in a monumental effort to promote peace throughout the country. All Mexican presidential candidates, all governorship candidacies, and 641 municipal presidential candidacies, along with other candidates for elected office, have signed a historic commitment.” In 199 municipalities of 28 states, events were held to sign the pledge for peace, bringing together more than 28 thousand people. “Convened and promoted by Churches, civil society organizations, universities, businesses and victims’ collectives, the commitment to peace that you have signed does not end with signatures. This is just the beginning of a continuous, demanding and co-responsible effort to build a safer and fairer Mexico for all”, conclude the bishops, who express their willingness to dialogue and meet the president-elect in the coming weeks.
