It is the bugaboo that everyone from right to left has to deal with. But looking back in time, experts suggest, it risks damaging above all those in government. And also those who can generally count on a pool of voters rooted in the areas where disaffection is expected to be highest, such as the South. With just a handful of days left until the vote, a shadow hovers over the Italian polls for the European elections: that of record abstentionism.
Not that this is anything new: since 1979, the year of the first elections for the European Parliament, Italians’ interest in what happens in Brussels and Strasbourg has been waning. At least if you look at voter participation, which has fallen from 85.7% at the beginning to 54.5 five years ago. And this time – say the pollsters’ forecasts – the bar could end up around the psychological threshold of one in two Italians voting. With a splash, in particular, among the under 35s, who emerge from the surveys as the most “doubtful”: those in whom the mix between indecision and abstentionism weighs, according to Quorum-Youtrend, between 15 and 20 points more than the other groups of age.
THE SENTIMENT
Yes, but if so, who will pay the price? It’s difficult to predict, pollsters agree. «The turnout is determined by the sentiment of the electoral campaign», explains Antonio Noto of Noto Sondaggi. «And the tone of this campaign seems weak, limp. In 2014 Renzi had just launched the 80 euro, in 2019 Salvini focused everything on security. This time, however, no party has a flagship idea to wave: there is no strong theme that can revive the interest of voters.” This is why for Noto the 54% of five years ago would be an ambitious goal: «The result will probably be lower».
And looking at other rounds in which participation fell, the government parties were especially affected by the decline. Carlo Buttaroni of Tecnè reasons: «The European elections are experienced as mid-term elections. And it is common that, when turnout drops, it is mostly voters who are disappointed by the executive who stay at home rather than opposition supporters.” But every rule has its exceptions. «And in fact in 2014 and 2019 it didn’t go like this: in both cases the government parties, first the Democratic Party, then the League, were rewarded with historic results». In other words: there may be surprises. «In a phase like this, with two ongoing conflicts that generate a lot of concern, deciphering the sentiment of public opinion is particularly difficult», argues Buttaroni. «Citizens are subjected to an excess of stimuli which creates confusion. And which risks alienating us even further.”
And then there is the other key factor, the territory. And here the special observation is the South. Generally less inclined to rush to the polls en masse to choose who to send to Brussels. «In the South and on the islands the drop in turnout is much more marked than in the rest of the country», explains Lorenzo Pregliasco of Quorum-Youtrend. «In 2019, half of the voters voted in Sicily and Sardinia compared to ’79, while in the North the decrease was by a third». A gap whose effects are also felt in politics, but which widens dramatically during the vote for Brussels. «This is why those who are more rooted in the South suffer more from abstentionism in the European elections. Five years ago – continues Pregliasco – this distribution rewarded the Democratic Party and disadvantaged the M5S. While in subsequent policies the opposite trend was recorded.” And it is the same reason why “potentially – Pregliasco comments – even Forza Italia, from a low participation, risks something more”. Although a rebalancing may come from the candidates. “In the South, the preferential vote counts more than in the North, where the symbol of the party weighs heavily,” suggests Noto. «And a strong candidate – he concludes – can drive a list even in the event of low turnout».
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