And in the end Vladimir Putin achieved what he wanted to avoid with the special operation: the irreversible process that will bring Ukraine into NATO has begun. The US-Ukraine security agreement signed on the sidelines of the G7, in fact, is Kiev’s unofficial entry into the Western defense system, because when you have a mutual assistance agreement on a military level with Washington you also have it with ‘Atlantic Alliance given that the Atlantic Alliance, in fact, is essentially the United States. Moreover – sticking to the theory – if the United States in their defense of Ukraine were attacked by Russia, the other NATO countries would be forced to intervene in Washington’s aid due to the famous article 5 of the Atlantic Pact.
This is why the Borgo Egnazia agreement, if you read it with infrared, in fact gives Ukraine the same guarantees that it would have if it were in NATO, overcoming the obstacles that could have stood in the way of those members of the Alliance who have particular relations with Moscow , see Hungary: the United States, in fact, is committed to guaranteeing Kiev’s security in this conflict and in any that may follow; it is an agreement that has a duration of ten years and which ultimately provides for formal entry into NATO; However, the agreement does not exclude that Ukraine could join even earlier if the conditions are created, i.e. if the necessary reforms are approved and if Kiev takes less time to bring its military standards to the level of those of the Alliance.
What’s more: the ten-year duration also protects the agreement from the eventuality of Donald Trump arriving in the White House because it would last longer than his presidential mandate; so at most Red Donald could only freeze it but not erase it.
That the US-Ukraine pact represents a turning point is also demonstrated by the Kremlin’s reaction with Putin who judges it to be a bluff agreement and says he is willing to negotiate if four regions of Kiev’s territory will become Russian (Donbass etc.) and if, precisely , Kiev will remain outside NATO. Whether a provocation or not, it is clear, however, that the solution to the war after the meeting between Biden and Zelensky in Borgo Egnazia has now taken other paths.
As Il Giornale wrote on 7 October 2022, guarantees for future security (pact with the USA and then entry into NATO) could push Kiev to freeze the conflict. There will not be an agreement but the borders will be dictated by the military balance of power, they will be set by the front line: therefore it is difficult if not impossible for Zelensky’s army to reconquer the lost territories, but with the aid that will arrive from NATO It will also be difficult if not impossible for Russia to annex other pieces of Ukraine. A Korea-style solution, that is, with a peace not signed. This is what they have in mind in Washington. An equation that offers Ukraine future security in exchange for the – unofficial – cession of pieces of territory to Russia.
If it ends like this, Vladmir Putin will certainly not have made a great deal: perhaps he will manage to keep parts of Donbas and Crimea but at the same time, compared to the beginning of the conflict, the number of NATO countries bordering Russia will increase: in addition to those previously there will also be Sweden, Finland and, in fact, Ukraine.
But it will, in fact, be an unspoken peace, a return to the atmosphere of the Iron Curtain. Except that too much blood has been shed, too many deaths have taken place for such a violent conflict to end with a handshake. Wounds, resentments, the desire for revenge heal with time.
