Climatologist Luca Mercalli: “In the summer of 2022, the hottest in Western Europe, over 61 thousand heat deaths were recorded, 18 thousand of which were in Italy alone. It will also happen in the future due to climate change.”
Interview with Luca Mercalli
Climatologist
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More than a thousand Muslim pilgrims have now died in Mecca during the Hajj pilgrimage to the sacred places of Islam. The boom in deaths was caused by an exceptional heat wave, with temperatures that reached 52 degrees and remained at record levels for days. The victims are largely Egyptians, but Saudi authorities are still identifying several missing and injured people in hospitals and have warned that the toll could rise further in the coming hours.
The drama unfolding in Mecca is a direct consequence of climate change and adds to the hundreds of victims of the extreme heat of recent weeks in India, Pakistan and Mexico, countries hit by extraordinary heat waves. However, it should not be forgotten that even in the latitudes of the richest countries in the world, a relationship has been proven between increased mortality and increased temperatures; it is no coincidence that in the summer of 2022 the record heat caused over 61 thousand deaths in Europe, as confirmed by the European State of the Climate (ESOTC) 2022 report developed by scientists from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. In short, more and more often people die from the heat. And in the future the 50 degrees recorded in Saudi Arabia will also become usual in Italy due to climate change, as confirmed to Fanpage.it by Professor Luca Mercalli.
Professor, in Mecca more than a thousand pilgrims died, many of them due to excessive temperatures. Is the 51.8 degrees recorded normal at those latitudes or does climate change have anything to do with it?
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Those temperatures are not normal at all because they are well above the average values of the area: we are close to the historic highs for those regions, where normally in this period of the year the mercury should not exceed 39-40 degrees; 51.8 degrees, however, is definitely too much. However, the one in Mecca was not the only heat wave of the last few weeks. This is an increasing trend, as demonstrated by the many victims in India and Pakistan, where temperatures exceeded 50 degrees, without forgetting Mexico. But even Europe is not immune to these extreme events: just remember that in the summer of 2022, the hottest in Western Europe, over 61 thousand heat-related deaths were recorded, 18 thousand of which were in Italy alone.
If during the Covid pandemic we had had 18 thousand deaths in three months we would have been dismayed by the gravity of the situation, but instead…
However, that data went completely unnoticed. The weakest sections of the population succumbed, such as the elderly and the sick, most of whom died at home without even going to hospital. In the end, it was the morgues and not the departments of the health facilities that were clogged. It will happen in the future too.
Three years ago 48.8 degrees were recorded in Sicily, the highest temperature ever in our country.
After all, the 48.8 degrees recorded in July 2021 in Floridia, Sicily, are not that far from the 51.8 in Mecca. However, other factors must be considered, starting from the duration of the heat peak: one thing is that it lasts a few hours and that one can find shelter in a place equipped with air conditioning, another thing is that it is days or entire weeks at 48/50 degrees , perhaps in poor countries without adequate infrastructure, where people literally die of heat in the middle of the street. Thermal stress for the human body is cumulative: a few hours of extreme heat can be tolerated, but days or weeks cannot and the consequences can be fatal.
Will Italy ever reach temperatures like those of Saudi Arabia due to climate change?
We will get there but it is difficult to say when: when we scientists make future scenarios we can only say that temperatures will certainly increase in Italy too, and that the frequency of extreme phenomena will also increase. It is reasonable to think that in about ten years the 48.8 degrees will even become 50 in Sicily; initially that peak will be reached every now and then, but sooner or later it will end up lasting 5-6 days straight. Then that heat could also affect large cities and involve thousands or millions of people. And the consequences are easy to understand, especially for the elderly and sick…
In recent weeks there have been large quantities of snow in the Alps and some are taking advantage of this to claim that climate change is a hoax. Can you tell us how things are?
What is happening is a normal fluctuation in climate variability: after going through extremely dry years, with extreme minimum snow in the Alps, we have had a spring that has returned what was missing in 2021, 2022 and part of 2023. But this is absolutely normal; If anything, what is striking are the extremes, with the driest years ever combined with one of the wettest springs ever. This is also an indicator of the increase in extreme weather events, and are technically referred to as “climate whiplash”. I underline that the snow has nothing to do with the heat: the deniers have taken the opportunity to say that everything is as before and climate change is a lie. Be careful, there is snow, but only at high altitudes; at lower altitudes there was no snow. Last spring was warmer than the 200-year average.
The European elections have just been held: in Germany the AfD, which explicitly denies the anthropogenic origin of climate change, took 15% of the votes. In France the Rassemblement National has reached 30% with a program that proposes a return to fossil fuels. Are these facts that worry you?
An absurd interpretation of environmental problems is being created. The right tends not to want rules that affect people’s individual freedom and economic development, consequently some political leaders see environmentalist rules exclusively as punitive. This is a serious mistake: mixing science with politics tends to create ideological polarizations. But the scientific data are the same, and they are indisputable. No politician in the world would dream of denying the existence of tumors, so no politician should question the existence of anthropogenic climate change. The climate should be an issue that goes beyond parties: politics should limit itself to discussing the ways in which to make the transition and there would be no need to deny the problem, as many European and even Italian right-wingers do.
