AGI – A majority or multiple majorities that can be composed of European Parliament. It is the first puzzle of the next legislature which will arise on Sunday evening with the first exit polls. The first majority essential is the one that exceeds the threshold of 50% plus one (361 out of 720 deputies) and what is needed for cconfirm the president (or the President) of the European Commission.
The other majority, however, will be that of the legislature to approve from time to time the legislative proposals that will land on the benches of the chamber. And these two majorities are not always overlapping. So far the European Parliament has followed the traditional lines popular-socialist-liberal coalition. But in recent years the right-wing formations have taken on ever greater weight to the point of aspiring to be one alternative majority.
The numbers
The Europe Elects projections – based on the average of the polls as of May 30th – trace a picture where the EPP confirms itself as the first group with 180 seats; the socialists and democrats (S&D) in second with 138 and the Renew Liberals third with 86 seats. The arithmetic sum would be 404. According to Politico.eu projections, in reality this majority would stop at 390.
In any case, the EPP’s spitzenkandidat, Ursula von der Leyen, outgoing president, cannot breathe a sigh of relief with these numbers. Five years ago he gained confidence with a margin of nine votes and then the Parliament was much more cohesive than the one that will be born in July.
Meanwhile, according to analysts and workers, the snipers – i.e. those who will not follow the group’s vote indication in the secrecy of the ballot box – are on average 10% per group. Calculator in hand, the 404 risk becoming 363. The 390 would be below the threshold of a dozen deputies, at 351. Furthermore, von der Leyen does not enjoy transversal support even among the EPP benches (in the vote for her coronation as candidate the defections were 18%). thus the scenarios of the composable majority.
On the one hand, extending the green light to the possible president of the EPP also from the Greens who can put on the table a dowry of 56 seats but with a list of demands in exchange that are not easy to satisfy. If, however, the EPP decided to look to the right then the first objective would be the delegation of the Brothers of Italy (Ecr Group) which could secure 23 more votes.
However socialists and liberals have repeatedly threatened to withdraw all support for von der Leyen if he were to invoke the help of the Italian Prime Minister.
The alternative
The alternative majority would be the European Parliament’s revolutionary turn to the right, leaving socialists and greens out of the coalition. But the numbers don’t add up: Ppe (180 seats) plus Ecr (75) plus Id (68 seats after the stormy divorce with Afd) make 323. Not even a large contribution from non-members (see Afd and Fidesz) would be enough to exceed 361. Obviously someone on the right is convinced that they can bring a portion of the liberals to their side but everything remains to be seen.
