Berlin, 5 June 2024 – Even the Germany prepares: “We must be ready for one war by 2029 – declared in the Bundestag the Ministry of Defense Boris Pistorius – We need women and men who can defend themselves and who can defend this country.” The wind in Europe is blowing dangerously towards the direction of a continental conflict: the prospect – more or less declared – in the medium and long term is that of an extension of the Russian-Ukrainian war. In the beginning it was there France to evoke awar economywhen we were talking about weapons to Ukraine but not yet authorizations and to strike across the border, into Russian territory. Two days ago the head of the Norwegian army, General Eirik Kristoffersen, prophesied a Russian attack against the Born in the next future. The alliance would have “2-3 years” to prepare for this scenario. A time halved compared to that predicted by Pistorius himself last January: at the time the German Defense Minister spoke of 5-8 years before Moscow’s aggression against the countries of the Atlantic Pact.
“We need new forms of military service”
The feeling is that Berlin is now also pressing on the accelerator: “We must act as a deterrent to prevent the worst from getting to the worst,” Pistorius told the German parliament. But it is wrong to think that Putin will stop in Ukraine. For this we need to prepare, and to prepare we need “personnel, material and finances”, the three pillars of defense. And speaking of personnel, “I think they are necessary new forms of military service. I will present some proposals shortly.”
Until now, Germany had taken a cautious line. Over the last year, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has always opposed thesending of the Taurus (long-range missiles) in Kiev: he has now said yes to the possibility of hit targets in Russia with German weapons. A reversal that follows the French initiative and the position of the secretary of the Born, Stoltenbergwhich even before Macron and of Biden opened up the use of Western weapons across the Ukrainian border.
What caused the trend reversal? Perhaps Russia’s military pressure which last month launched a brutal offensive in the Kharkiv region, which the Ukrainian Defense is struggling to resist. But also the field invasions of Moscow in the Baltic countries, aerial and maritime (the episode of the buoys removed from the river that separates Russian territory from Estonian territory), with Russian intelligence appearing to have increased its activity on the border with NATO. In short, Putin, he not only advances in Ukraine but presses – for now provocatively – at the doors of the Alliance.
Germany has thus joined a large group, which at this point becomes a majority. France And Great Britain, among the great powers, are those that have taken the most interventionist positions for the longest time together with the Scandinavians, Baltics, Poles and Dutch. The most important piece on the international chessboard are the United States: they too broke the deadlock.
Supporting Kiev’s counter-offensive implies adopting at least a ‘possibilist’ perspective towards an extension of the war. And this in turn requires changing the internal policies. Already last November, Pistorius invoked “war capability” or “being ready for war” (Kriegstüchtigkeit) as the “maxim” to be followed operationally in German defense policy. Today the Berlin government approved a new defense strategy in the event of conflicts which includes “the measures and structures necessary to guarantee the independence and sovereignty of Germany”. The new guidelines, which replace those of 1989 aim to establish the roles (who does what) for all the main actors in society – from the armed forces to rescue organizations, up to civil protection authorities – in the event of a “crisis scenario”.
Berlin, say Pistorius and Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, quoted by the Apa agency, is developing “a operational plan for Germany”. “All state levels need to work closely together,” Faeser said. “We have closely intertwined military and civil defense,” added Pistorius, referring to “an aggravated threatening situation: in cyberspace, with drones over the properties of the armed forces, disinformation campaigns and classic sabotage”. The German government also underlined Germany’s role as a “hub” for the deployment of NATO troops in the heart of Europe. In short, having abandoned the proverbial caution, Berlin seems intent on putting on its helmet.
