L’Iran maneuvering, agitating, studying countermoves in case a truce finally arrives in Gaza. The crisis played into his hands and allowed him to play along with the many Shiite militias, who are increasingly armed.
The Islamic Republic has sent the new minister Ali Bagheri to the region, successor to Hussein Amir Abdollahian who died in the helicopter crash together with President Raisi. The head of diplomacy began his tour in Beirut because – as he explained – Hezbollah is the spearhead of the resistance against the Jewish state, hence the meeting with Secretary Hassan Nasrallah. A visit preceded by an increase in guerrilla actions with the use of a massive drone attack on Israel carried out by a “flock” of explosive vehicles. A coup part of the duel with the Jewish State always busy eliminating faction officials. The second stop in Bagheri was Syria, an important ally and strategic platform. Here too the context is the same: the Israelis have eliminated a Pasdaran “adviser” near Aleppo airport in recent hours.
The tensions are evident, across a broad horizon. The Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a few days ago, praised the Palestinian assault on 7 October because it caused a halt to dialogue between Tel Aviv and the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf. A public praise that could prove right those who think that the massacre in the kibbutzim was inspired by the ayatollahs, determined to hinder the thaw and ready to create a diversion from Ukraine. An analysis not shared by those who believe that the Iranians play an important, but secondary, role. According to this interpretation, Iran has only exploited the offensive decided solely by the Hamas leaders.
The ayatollah’s outburst did not please Palestinian president Abu Mazen who did not hesitate to denounce it. “They are using our blood,” he stated polemically. Observation to underline how Iran hides behind support for the most extreme components for expand its influence, counter regional enemies, reaffirm its role. The possibilities of peace or war also pass through Tehran thanks to the special relationship with friendly factions, in possession of systems with which to modulate interventions based on particular needs and agendas. In Yemen, the Houthis maintain constant pressure on the sea route, almost 200 episodes involving the use of drones and missiles aimed at ships or in the direction of Israeli territory. They regulate the «flame» to carry out their plans and, at the same time, act in parallel to the Iranians. They decide autonomously, but when necessary they collaborate with the regime that supports them.
Hezbollah is cautious. They must avoid total confrontation with Israel without giving up demonstrating their strength. And on a tactical level it is interesting to note how they are extending the range of their equipment while they have improved their anti-aircraft defenses thanks to the network managed by the Pasdaran. The Lebanese scenario always remains in the balance, with recurring rumors of a major conflagration during the coming weeks, starting from mid-June. Although peripheral, the “brigades” operating in Iraq are ready, with the arsenal that allows them to trigger provocations. They are the mirror of the Iranian sponsor, the perfect instrument of a proxy conflict where Iran tries to get the most without risking itself.
In Tehran they don’t hope for direct war and don’t even want it, which is why they leave it to the militants of the Shiite Axis to get burned.
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