France 2024 election polls: all attention is directed beyond the Alps with the polls for the legislative elections which will open again on Sunday 30 June, not even a month after the European elections. It was the president who wanted these early elections Emmanuel Macron once taking note of the party’s exploits Marine Le Pen in the European elections.
Before seeing in detail what the polls say in France and trying to understand who could be the winnerit is necessary to make a sort of general overview of these early legislative elections.
Macron – who is the President of the Republic – he did not resign after the European elections but dissolved the Parliament where his party (Ensemble) together with other centrist forces governed thanks to a sort of minority government: for each vote it was necessary to find the missing votes in the Chamber, with the crutch that has often come from Republicans.
In these legislative elections in France the next ones will be elected 577 members of Parliament through as many single-member constituencies, with a voting system double-round majority: the run-offs will take place on 7 July and, if no list in the first round has an absolute majority in a constituency, in the second round the challenge for the seat will be between all the candidates who obtained at least 12.5% of the votes, therefore even three or four candidates.
After the elections, the new majority indicates the Prime Minister who is then appointed by the president: the consequent risk is that of having a president of one party at the Elysée and a prime minister from another party leading the government, the so-called cohabitation.
This is a scenario that appears very likely for the France 2024 election polls: for the first time the right of the National Rally can aim to obtain a majority in Parliament thanks also to the controversial and disputed alliance with i Republicanswith Emmanuel Macron who could soon be forced to cohabit with Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen’s young dolphin indicated by the leader as prime minister in pectore.
France 2024 election polls: who wins?
Unlike Italy where there is a stop in the two weeks preceding a vote, in France i electoral polls they can be carried out even a few days before the polls open, with these legislative elections certainly being no exception.
In view of France 2024 electionslast June 24th the Cluster17 institute has carried out a survey in which the National Rally by Marine Le Pen, with the New Ecological and Social Popular Union – Nupes -, a united center-left coalition formed by the Socialist Party, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise, the Greens and the Communist Party, which would be immediately behind while Ensemble of Emmanuel Macron appears more detached.
French election survey by Cluster17
Source Europe Elects
For a survey by Iflop of June 25th on the legislative elections in France, the advantage of the Rassemblement National would be even more marked with the party Reconquete of the writer Éric Zemmour listed at an all-time low.
French election survey by Iflop
Source Europe Elects
The scenario of these legislative elections in France is that of three large blocs, but the double-round voting system it can lead to the paradox of a coalition incapable of electing its own parliamentarians even if overall it were to obtain, for example, 20% of the votes.
For the polls the Marine Le Pen’s right would be clearly in the lead: it is not certain, however, that the Rassemblement National will be able to obtain a parliamentary majority, with the result of the France 2024 elections which could lead to a substantial draw and a consequent political stalemate in Paris.
