Rome, 15 June 2024 – The tension and the frost with Emmanuel Macron they are the scar on a G7 which would otherwise have been a success without shadows for Giorgia Meloni. The extreme irritation that reigns in Rome towards the tenant of the Elysée is therefore understandable. It remains to be clarified how much of this tension is linked to the French internal situation, i.e. the next vote. We talk about it with political scientist and Arabist Gilles Kepel.
Professor, is the sudden worsening of relations between Rome and Paris a consequence of the very important electoral test awaiting Macron?
“No. Relations between France and Italy are always complicated. There is contempt and jealousy between the two ‘Latin sisters’. On the one hand, Italy considers France a country that punches above its weight, on the other There is French cultural misunderstanding towards you. This is a huge problem, because we have many common interests, starting with the control of migratory flows, a phenomenon which, as a citizen of Menton, concerns me closely.”
In any case, the conflict between Macron and the European right is clear. Do you think it was a wise move to dissolve the National Assembly?
“Meanwhile, his move has shuffled the cards. Now there is an alliance between the far right and part of the traditional right. And I think that a piece of the moderate right-wing electorate will vote for Rassemblement National because on the other side the popular front of the left has appeared, ranging from the extreme wing to the socialist party. Macron hopes that, after the thrill of the European elections, voters will realize that the far right will bring France to its knees. among other things, they are controlled by the most extreme parties: the left by Mélenchon, the right by Le Pen.”
In short: Europe is not only threatened by the right but also by the far left.
“In reality, the far left has put a lot of water into the wine of its program, as has the far right. To be accepted, both fronts also need European consensus. These two blocs have similarities: they speak to the poorest France, the one most affected by the transformations of post-industrial capitalism. If the right addresses a ‘French’ electorate, the left speaks above all to the population of immigrants”.
And Macron in all this?
“It tries to create fear. It focuses on the fact that none of these blocs can govern alone. Let’s put it this way: by dividing the electorate into five parts, two out of five voters vote to the right, another two vote to the left and the center becomes the needle of the scale. Then, as I said, Macron hopes that the French wake up before voting, in the awareness that both right-wing and left-wing programs are almost impossible to apply.”
Le Pen has announced that if she wins she will form a government of national unity.
“A statement that aims not to scare. The problem in France is that the European elections are perceived as elections that have no political importance. A sort of survey on the satisfaction of the French with the government. In two weeks, on the contrary, everyone will know that there is much more at stake than this. It is no coincidence that both Le Pen and Mélenchon are trying to expand in the centre.”
Here too, elections are won at the centre. Professor, does the situation in France resemble that of Italy or are there substantial differences?
“The dynamic is similar. Just think that at the time of the Salvini-5 Star government the model of the right was Salvini, now instead we look towards Meloni and the prime minister’s ability to put her agenda at the centre. But in Italy the bureaucracy has retained an important role and, above all, the President of the Republic in Italy has a protocol role, in France he has a very important sovereign role. He has the ability to prevent a government that is not of the same color as him from doing things that he does not want. especially in foreign policy.”
