Never in the history of the Fifth Republic and since the first European Parliament election by universal suffrage (1979) has a party been able to win both the European and legislative elections in succession. According to most recent polls, the Rassemblement National could become the first political party to win two consecutive elections after the June-July legislative elections – and the 2027 presidential elections.
The Rassemblement National (ID) led by Jordan Bardella won the 2024 European elections with 31.37% of the vote, more than double the coalition led by the presidential majority of Renaissance (RE, 14.6%).
In the legislative elections to be held on June 30 and July 7, the RN could also come first, becoming the first party to win both elections in a row.
- The Rassemblement pour la République (RPR) was the only party to come close in the early 1990s.
- However, Jacques Chirac’s party had to ally itself with the Union pour la démocratie française (UDF) to win the 1989 and 1994 European elections.
- After Nicolas Sarkozy’s victory in the 2007 presidential elections, the Union pour un mouvement populaire (UMP) won the 2009 legislative and European elections on a list that also included Les Centristes (NC) and La Gauche moderni (LGM).
- Three years later, however, the former president lost the 2012 presidential election to Socialist Party candidate François Hollande.
After its victory in the European elections on 9 June, the Rassemblement National (RN) will likely become the first party to win all three elections in a row.
- Emmanuel Macron’s decision – after his party’s heavy defeat – to dissolve the National Assembly and call early legislative elections makes it possible for the RN to win in the legislative elections to be held on 30 June and 7 July.
- According to the latest polls, the RN would obtain between 34% and 35% of the votes and between 235 and 265 seats in the Assembly.
In 2027, the RN could also bring a candidate to the Elysée after the presidential elections. An Ifop poll dated April 26, which hypothesizes a second round between Gabriel Attal and Marine Le Pen, gives the RN candidate the winner with 53% of the votes.
