No one has any doubts about the fact that Fratelli d’Italia will be confirmed as the country’s leading political force at the European elections. What remains to be seen, if anything, is whether the Prime Minister’s party will go beyond the number of votes obtained in the 2022 elections – 26% – or less. But the specter that agitates the parties across the board a few days before the polls open is another: that of abstentionism. This will, in fact, be the true “first party” chosen by the Italians. A now well-known trend in electoral behavior. Opinion institutes can no longer publish research carried out on the topic, as well as surveys. Yet Antonio Noto, director of Noto polls, delivers a Republic his gloomy prediction. There is a risk that for the first time, more Italians will not vote than will: “There is no doubt that the chances of going below 50% are high.” The measurements on which this claim is based are not known. Yet another expert on the subject like Roberto D’Alimonte seems to share the assessment: «I don’t have a crystal ball – he always says to Republic – but the fears of these days seem well founded to me. There is a risk of falling below the 54 percent of the last time.” Reference to the participation rate in the 2019 European elections, which already marked the lowest point in the historical series: of the European elections, and beyond.
Who takes risks and who doesn’t
Predictions all to be verified by the facts. What is certain is that there are millions of undecided people, and many will also be those who will stay at home. Who will pay the price most? Again according to D’Alimonte, Giuseppe Conte and Matteo Salvini are above all at risk. For specular reasons. The 5 Star Movement risks paying for the potentially “explosive” rate of abstentionism in Southern Italy, where it traditionally has a significant electoral base. Which could, however, turn out to be “dried up”. For the political scientist, in fact, the Conte who is presenting himself at the 2024 European elections «has no roots. And it has candidates with little appeal, who will struggle to gain preferences.” Precisely those that usually make the difference in the polls in the South, where «packages of votes count. Only this time there’s little to trade. And the constituencies are enormous.” And so the turnout gap between Centre-North and South risks widening further compared to 2019, when it was 17 points. The situation of the League is different. Here for D’Alimonte the risk for Salvini is that of paying for purely political mistakes, positioning the party in an uncertain land. «What are Zaia and Vanancci doing in the same party? By positioning the party on the far right he gave the North to the Brothers of Italy and allowed Tajani to survive.” A paradoxical outcome, explains the teacher, if you consider that the leader of the League «after Berlusconi’s death he had a prairie. He, however, lost the North and did not conquer the South.” The two largest parties on the spectrum, Pd and FdI, who can count on greater roots, could suffer less from abstentionism. The fact remains, for D’Alimonte, that none of the protagonists of the political dispute made a great impression in this electoral campaign: «disappointing, dull, dull. Nobody has really educated us on European issues. There has been more talk about Vannacci than about the future of Europe.” The word (hopefully) at the polls.
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