- 3.30pm – Wall Street opens mixed. PCE inflation at 2.7
- 1.30 pm – Piazza Affari regains altitude
- 11 am – The Ftse Mib reduces growth. Italian inflation stable in May. European inflation is rising
- 9am – The Ftse Mib opens higher. Tim down (-5%)
- 8.30 am – Piazza Affari cautious wait on the day of Moody’s on Italy. EU and US inflation at center stage
The Ftse Mib closes at 34,482 points, up 0.1%. Pirelli, which gained 2.7%, was driven by Leonardo (+2.3%) and Recordati (+1.7%). Tim fell, losing 2.7%, Unipol (-1.7%) and Saipem (-1.5%). The Btp/Bund spread rises to 130 basis points.
3.30pm – Wall Street opens mixed. PCE inflation at 2.7%
Wall Street opened mixed, with the Dow Jones losing 0.8% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.1% and 0.2% respectively as of 3.30pm. At the start of trading overseas, the Ftse Mib is at parity, at 34,447 points, while the BTP/Bund spread remains at 128 basis points.
The latest consumption data also arrived from the United States. Specifically, personal consumption expenditures rose by 0.2% on a monthly basis in April, below the consensus which had expected a +0.3%. The consumption deflatoror the personal consumption expenditure price index, increased by 0.3% on a monthly and daily basis 2.7% at an annual level. The component core it grew by 0.2% on a monthly basis and by 2.8% on an annual level.
1.30 pm – Piazza Affari regains altitude
The Ftse Mib regains share and at 1pm rises by 0.16%, to 34,502.96 points, driven by Pirelli (+1.7%), MPS (+1.5%) and Poste (+1.4%) . Diasorin (-2.5%), Tim (-2.4%) and Iveco (-1.6%) fell. Bper also rose (+0.8% at 1pm) following the early closure of the 2022-2025 industrial plan to 31 December 2024. On Thursday 30 May the board of directors of the Modena institute gave the CEO, Giovanni Franco Papa, a mandate to prepare a new 2024-2027 industrial plan, which “also takes into account the changed macroeconomic scenario”.
11am – Ftse Mib cautious after data on Italian and European inflation
After the data on Italian and European inflation, the Ftse Mib returns to parity (+0.05%), at 34,463.99 points. Tim continues to decline (-1.9%) with Saipem (-1.3%) and Iveco (-1.26%). Pirelli (+1.5%), MPS (+1.3%) and Leonardo (+1.2%) increased.
Euro area, inflation surprises on the rise
Growing more than expectedEuropean inflation which rises to 2.6% in May (from 2.4% in April) for the general index and to 2.9% (from 2.7%) for the core component according to Eurostat’s preliminary estimates. Data that exceeds the Bloomberg consensus, based on the estimates of 45 economists, which expected an increase of 2.5% at a general level and 2.7% for the core data.
According to the governor of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, European inflation is «in line with our forecasts. It’s not bad and not good news: we expected it”, he said on the occasion of the Bank of Italy’s annual report.
The European data could also have repercussions on the Italian context, although inflation in the Peninsula remained stable in May (+0.8%). «Despite Italy showing positive signs, distancing itself from the inflation peaks of 11.6% recorded in October 2022, the European context remains a cause for concern», comments Gabriel Debach, market analyst at eToro. «This situation complicates future decisions of the European Central Bank and markets, placing Italy in a delicate condition: despite internal progress, the country is still subject to external economic dynamics that could nullify national efforts”.
L’Italian inflation in May it remains stable at 0.8% on an annual basis (0.2% monthly) according to preliminary Istat estimates. The shopping cart slows down to 2%. It also cools downcore inflation, net of energy goods and fresh food, as well as that net of energy goods only (both from +2.1% to +2% in May). The inflation acquired for 2024 is thus equal to 0.8% for the general index and 1.8% for the underlying component.
9am – The Ftse Mib opens higher. Tim down (-5%)
The Ftse Mib opens above parity (+0.2%) at 34,519 points on Friday 31 May, thanks to Bper Banca (+1.7%), Pirelli (+1%), Leonardo (+0.9%). Telecom Italia (-5.3%), Iveco and Erg (-0.6%) are down.
France, stable inflation
The consumer price index in France increased by 2.2% in May 2024, as in April, according to the provisional estimate carried out by the Insee (National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies). The stability of inflation, explains Insee, is due to a slight slowdown on an annual basis in the prices of services and tobacco, counterbalanced by a strong acceleration in energy prices resulting from a base effect in comparison with 2023.
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8.30 am – Piazza Affari cautious wait on the day of Moody’s on Italy. EU and US inflation at center stage
While the yield on bonds starts to rise again, with the Treasury yielding 4.95% for 10 years and the BTP 3.96%, amidst the markets’ fears that the central banks, especially the Fed, are in no hurry to cut rates, Eurostoxx 50 futures move cautiously, above parity. But those on the Nasdaq were down 0.33% at 8:30 am Italian time.
In Asia, the Nikkei rose by 1%, but the Chinese stock markets lost momentum and flattened after the publication of the below-expected PMIs, especially the manufacturing sector, which returned to the contraction area. And while the debate on the November presidential elections is intense in the US following the conviction of former president Donald Trump in New York, the markets will look carefully on Friday at the data on inflation in the Eurozone and the US (PCE), while in the evening the Moody’s agency will express its opinion on Italy.
Germany, retail sales disappoint
Retail sales in Germany are decreased by 1.2% on a monthly basis in April 2024, worse than forecasts of a 0.2% decline. The retail sector of foodstuffs saw a significant drop in sales of 3.7%, while sales of non-food products saw a slight increase of 0.2%. On base annualretail sales fell by 0.6%.
China, the manufacturing PMI begins to contract again, unexpectedly
China’s official manufacturing PMI (NBS, compiled by the government) fell to 49.5 in May 2024 (all numbers below 50 indicate economic contraction) from 50.4 in April, missing the forecast of 50.5. It was the first decline in industrial activity since February due to a renewed decline in new orders and foreign demand. At the same time, output growth slowed to a three-month low, while cost pressure mounted.
China, services PMI at 4-month low
China’s official services PMI (NBS) fell to 51.1 in May 2024 from 51.2 in the previous month, below expectations of 51.5. It is the 17th consecutive month of services expansion (because the figure is above 50), but the weakest pace since January, with new orders weak (46.9 versus 46.3 in April). The declines accelerated both for foreign sales (47.6 against 48.4) and for employment (45.2 against 47.2).
Japan, industrial production declines
Industrial production in Japan fell 0.1% month-on-month in April 2024, missing forecasts of 0.9% growth. It’s the third decline this year.
The macro calendar for Friday 31 May
01.30 Japan, Tokyo Inflation
03.30 China, May manufacturing and services PMI
08.00 Eurozone, Vujcic (ECB)
08.45 France, Harmonized inflation in May
10.00 Italy, first quarter GDP
11.00 Eurozone, May inflation
11.00 Eurozone, May core inflation
11.00 Italy, harmonized inflation in May
2.30pm USA, Personal income and spending April
2.30pm USA, Core PCE deflator
3.45pm USA, Chicago PMI
Italy Moody’s: rating decision (Baa3, stable)
In Piazza Affari, watch out…
Pirelli, after the exit of Silk Road Fund from the Italian tire company over which the government exercised the Golden Power, the Chinese shareholder Sinochem, with 37%, would have asked Consob who de facto governs the group, according to what he writes MF-Milano Finanza.
As for Tim, The European Commission has unconditionally approved the acquisition of the subsidiary NetCo by KKR.
On Italian postItaly will retain 51% of the company, the Treasury has communicated to the unions, scaling back a previous plan that envisaged reducing the state’s shareholding to 35% from the current 64%.
The board of directors Bper Bank resolved the early closure of the 2022-2025 industrial plan to 31 December 2024 in light of the early achievement of the main economic and financial objectives. The new 2024-2027 plan will be submitted to the board of directors in October 2024. The board also assessed the possibility of favoring the acceptance of approximately 600 additional requests for early exit.
Italgas expects a recovery of adjusted revenues in the remaining part of the year with a final value in line with the 2023 figure at approximately 1.8 billion euros.
Italian post, ordinary and extraordinary meeting (2.00 pm). (All rights reserved)
Posting time: 05/31/2024 08:00
Last update: 05/31/2024 5.54pm
