MILAN – Italy needs “further budgetary efforts in the next two years”. This is stated by International Monetary Fund In the Fiscal Monitor. “The probability that Italy will reach the primary deficit needed to stabilize its debt levels (estimated at more than 0.5% of GDP for 2024) is less than 50%, indicating the need for further fiscal efforts in the coming years. two years”, observes the IMF.
“Some economies (Italy, Japan) have announced new budget stimulus plans and new spending initiatives, often on the basis of optimistic financing assumptions”, the Fund further states, underlining that “global debt is expected to rise close to 100% of GDP by 2029” and this increase “will be driven by some large economies (for example China, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States), which need to act to address fundamental imbalances between spending and revenues”.
“We need investments in the green economy and tech to return to growth”
by our correspondent Paolo Mastrolilli
April 17, 2024
Bank of Italy reiterates: “Growth at +0.6% in 2024”
Meanwhile the Bank of Italy reiterates the GDP estimates released last April 5th which predict an increase of 0.6% for the Italian economy in 2024 after a ‘weak’ first quarter, a figure which rises to 0.8 excluding the correction for the days working. The economic bulletin of the central institute also confirms the GDP estimate of +1% in 2025 and +1.2% in 2026. An estimate, that of Via Nazionale, higher than that released this morning by the Confindustria Study Center which sees +0.9% this year and +1.1% next.
“Limited impact from crisis in the Red Sea”
In its bulletin, Via Nazionale also focuses on the impact of the crisis in the Red Sea. “The risks that the recent increase in maritime transport costs translate into strong inflationary pressures in Europe appear limited at the moment”, underlines Bank of Italy. “Even in a particularly pessimistic scenario, in which maritime freight rates stabilize at levels higher than the peak reached in April, we would see a rise in consumer inflation in the euro area of at most 0.3 percentage points”. A less pessimistic scenario would lead to an increase in consumer inflation of at most 0.15 percentage points .
