In Europe will change everything after the community vote to not change anything? From the 2019 vote to today, the world has changed, even for the Old Continent. Yes is first, literally, tacked, with the Covid-19 pandemic which overwhelmed Europe in 2020. Then it was the turn geopolitical course of history, with the acceleration given by Covid-19 transmitted to the inexorable march of history: the Afghan retreat in 2021, followed in 2022 by the war in Ukraine, the confrontation with Putin, the re-Atlantization of the Old Continent. In the middle of, the common debt first and the inflation boom Then.
The rate hike and the end of global quantitative easing were followed by return to the Stability Pact, which was hotly contested in 2019 and changed today, but in fact still in force. Ready, go and a European legislature is over. But it seems like we’re back on track. The “sovereignist” bogeyman of 2019 is no longer therethere is that of “Putinians” about Europe. A. is expected boom of the radical rightat least in voting intentions, cheering up the idea of an alternative majority to the large European coalition in the thoughts of many identitarians and conservatives. Ursula von der Leyen she is campaigning for her re-election, trying to woo with Defense, Security and the fight against immigration the right that has long contested her for her changes on the Green Deal.
The world has changed, but the logic is the same as five years ago. In the voting intentions for Strasbourg, the group of the European People’s Party and that of the Socialists and Democrats they total, in total, over 310 seats out of 720. The EPP is first: it holds 176 today, the polls give it between 172 and 182. The socialists, from 136 seats today, are given from 135 to 143. Europe is so upset that the two main groups, despite the expulsion respectively of Fidesz, of the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and of Smer, the formation of the Slovakian Robert Fico, could advance. Presence in every state helps. The EPP enjoys the driving force of the German CDU and the Spanish People’s Party in the home of the European centre-right, in Spain the return to bipolarism pushes the Spanish Socialist Partywhile many formations are holding up compared to 2019, from the Italian Democratic Party to the Labor and Social Democrats of the North.
Europe is so in a sort of crystallization that conservatives of the ECR group and identitarians of the ID group could also fail in the assault on third place, with Renew Europe, Emmanuel Macron’s liberal group, decreasing from 102 to 80-85 seats but according to the polls ahead of the two right-wing parties. Compared to 2019 the rhetoric changes, the assumptions change, the political dialectics change: today the EU is asked to talk about defense, rearmament, industry, artificial intelligence, we no longer feel the strength to ask for a revision of the treaties in any primary force, we are questioning many existential and geopolitical issues. But people go to vote, everywhere, in a Europe that is taken for granted by everyone. Even from the fiercest critics. And in which the substantial balance of power between the political formations and the various families will only be reshufflednot distorted.
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Which is why the approach to community decisions will not change taken in the hard core of the European Council, from negotiations between heads of state and government. Therefore, ultimately, starting from the synthesis ofFranco-German axis of the social democrat Olaf Scholz and the liberal Macron. Leader of a trio that has the EPP as a complement as the first European force and owner of the government of Donald Tusk’s Poland, the Atlantic voice in Europe. For others, it will be the political ability to understand that gradual changes and not revolutions are possible in Europe that will make the difference. Five years ago, Matteo Salvini and his League clashed with this principle. They will know today Do Giorgia Meloni and her people act differently, communicating with that system of which they are, despite their declarations to the contrary, part? From the response to this test of maturity comes, in our small way, Italy’s possibility of counting in Europe.
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