Every year theINPSupon indication of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (which in turn takes into account the data collected by Istat) increase the amount of pensions. This is predicted by the law no. 448 of 1998with which the mechanism called equalization with which the perceived treatment, whether of a social security or welfare type, comes adjusted to the cost of living.
In fact, it is an important tool since it prevents the pension from being received over the years loses value due to inflation. On the other hand, if prices increase the “strength” of the check decreases. In fact, for the same amount, you could buy less than in periods when prices were lower.
For this reason it has been established that if prices increase, pensions also increasetaking into account the inflation rate recorded by Istat over the last 12 months.
However, both the original mechanism and any corrective measures implemented by subsequent governments have limited the adjustment for those pensions whose amount exceeds 4 volte minimal treatment. In fact, since for these a partial revaluation is applied, as the years pass they are devaluing anyway.
In this regard, the attention of pensioners is entirely on the next revaluationespecially in light of what happened in the last two years when runaway inflation, 8.1% in 2022, 5.4% in 2023, led to a significant increase in checks.
How Much Will Pensions Increase in 2025?
Forget the increases that have occurred in the last two years, inflation (fortunately) has returned to a low level. Suffice it to say that in June a growth of just 1 was recorded by Istat 0,8%.
Overall, inflation – at least according to the estimates contained in the Economic and Financial Document approved last July – should be around1,6%.
A rate which therefore guarantees a new increase in pensions, albeit smaller than in previous years. In detail, the following would benefit from the increase:
- social security treatments, both direct and indirect. A pension of 1,000 euros, for example, will be increased by 16 euros, one of 1,500 euros by 24 euros;
- minimum pension, which should rise to 608,18 euro (net of further increases that could be decided by the government);
- Social securitywhich should rise from the current 534.41 a 542,96 euro;
- disability pensionsfor which instead the current 333.33 euros will increase to 338,66 euro.
This, obviously, should the prediction made internally by the Def be confirmed. However, it must be said that if there were to be a different value, it would not be very far from the estimated one.
What revaluation system will be used?
There is, however, a second unknown, linked to the revaluation mechanism used. To date, in fact, there is no doubt about the increase that will be authorized for pensions whose amount does not exceed 4 times the minimum treatment, as for these the revaluation will certainly be 100%.
Different story for those that exceed the aforementioned amount.
According to the original mechanism, in fact, these would be revalued at 100% for the part that does not exceed the 2.394,44 euro (4 times the minimum treatment), while that between 4 and 5 times the minimum treatment (2.993,05 euro) would be reevaluated at 90%. Finally, any amounts exceeding the 75%.
A bracket mechanism is therefore used, with the amount of the pension being divided between the three bands with the relative percentage of revaluation.
However, in recent years this system has been replaced by a less favorable one, with lower percentages and the entire pension which is revalued taking into account the reference rate.
Well, today we don’t yet know what system will be usedthat is, whether the Meloni government will authorize a return to the old rules or whether it will continue with the cut revaluation.
The difference would be notable, as we can see from the tables below:
Mechanism provided for by law no. 448 of 1998
| Pension amount | Revaluation percentage | Revaluation 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Up to 4 times the minimum treatment | 100% | 1,6% |
| Between 4 and 5 times the minimum treatment | 90% | 1,44% |
| Above 5 times the minimum treatment | 75% | 1,2% |
Mechanism as amended by the Meloni government
| Check range | And | A | Equalization index | Estimated inflation rate | Revaluation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up to four times the minimum treatment | — | 2.394,44 euro | 100% | 1,6% | 1,6% |
| Over 4 and up to 5 times the minimum treatment | 2.394,44 euro | 2.993,05 euro | 85% | 1,6% | 1,36% |
| Over 5 and up to 6 times the minimum treatment | 2.993,05 euro | 3.591,66 euro | 53% | 1,6% | 0,848% |
| Over 6 and up to 8 times the minimum treatment | 3.591,66 euro | 4.788,88 euro | 47% | 1,6% | 0,752% |
| Over 8 and up to 10 times the minimum treatment | 4.788,88 euro | 5.986,10 euro | 37% | 1,6% | 0,592% |
| Over 10 times the minimum | 5.986,10 euro* | – | 22% | 1,6% | 0,352% |
To understand the difference between the two methods let’s take a pension of 2.600 euro. This with the first system would be increased by 41 euroswhile with the second of Approximately 35 euros.
Even worse would be a larger pension, for example 3.500 euro. With the original system the increase would be approx 53 eurowhile with the Meloni system of approximately 30 eurowith a difference of 23 euros per month (around 300 euros per year).
