Rome, 6 June 2024 – “NATO has no intention of deploying forces in Ukraine,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said today, trying to once again ward off the specter of a hypothetical war between Atlantic forces and Russia. But what makes analysts fear is rather the prospect of one hybrid warfare, come on less clear boundaries and with ‘more subtle’ characteristics, compared to soldiers, trenches and missiles.
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What is it
To be precise, the term ‘hybrid warfare’ encompasses in its meaning a set of ‘conventional’ fighting and attacksunited with attacks (often unclaimed), sabotage of various kinds, cyber terrorism And sanctions economical. One of the first contexts in which this strategy was applied is precisely Ukrainewell before the invasion that began in February 2022. Since 2014, as Kiev’s politics turned towards Europeanism and Atlanticism, Russia inaugurated a series of initiatives aimed at weaken Ukraine and to bring it – in the long term – under his sphere of influence.
Among the best-known initiatives was the interruption to gas supplies Russian in June 2014, with the serious risk that citizens would be left without heating in the harsh Ukrainian winter. All this preceded by decidedly more ‘traditional’ moves, such as the invasion of Crimea (carried out by soldiers without insignia) and the related annexation in conflict with international law.
Russian influence on the US elections in 2016
Russia’s hybrid war would then go far beyond Ukraine, hitting the West as well. In 2020, following an investigation conducted by the United States Senate, it emerged that the Kremlin influenced the 2016 elections that brought Donald Trump to the White House. According to the investigation, Russian officials worked alongside the electoral team of the tycoon For discredit – especially in the media and online – the Democratic candidate Hillary Clintonfacilitating access to confidential documents proved to be important in his defeat. The similar motivation – that of manipulate public opinion – also guides the thousands of Russian users who circulate fake news and disinformation on the Web.
Fires, threats and disinformation in Europe
Europe is not unscathed: on the agenda of the European Union defense summit on May 23, the alleged Russian attacks on the continent. Nothing to do with missiles or raids: in recent months homes, warehouses, shops and shopping centers have been at the center of disastrous fires of a mysterious nature. And those responsible would be professionals “from the criminal world” hired by Russia. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas spoke of one “shadow war” of the Kremlin, who in his country even hired ten individuals “to attack the car of the interior minister and that of a journalist”, according to what was reported by the head of defense in Tallinn.
The accusations against Moscow also rain from France: the French prime minister Gabriel Attal he declared that Moscow’s interference is “a poison that seeks to manipulate public opinion”. “We saw red hands at the Shoah Memorial, coffins under the Eiffel Tower: these interferences are the new world war.”
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Coffins under the Eiffel Tower with the inscription: “French soldiers in Ukraine”. Russian shadows
The risk for the Europeans
In Italy, the presence of hybrid warfare is evident to both the government and the opposition. “Putin tries to scare Europe and the West – declared the foreign minister Antonio Tajani – Its part of the game”. The secretary of Elly Schlein instead he recalled the European Union commission responsible for investigating the case: “This is a realitythese attempts should be investigated interfere in democracyItaly is one of the most exposed countries,” he explained to the video forum of Republic. And in the meantime, while the Union is preparing to vote for the European elections, i Russian hacker groups People’s CyberArmy, HackNeT and Cyberdragon have announced attacks against the Netherlands, the first to vote.
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