Both inaccessible from a geographical point of view, at least in some of its areas, and potentially permeable to Islamic extremism. After the attack that hit Moscow, Central Asia has once again come under the spotlight as one of the territories in which the Islamic State, in its local meaning of Khorasan, is gathering a growing number of affiliates. “After Syria and Iraq were the favored basins for years, the Islamic State has long managed to be a pole of attraction in Central Asia,” the terrorism expert tells Il Foglio Lucas Webber. “The Islamic State of Khorasan has also created media sections in Tajik and Uzbek and customized messages to reach out to these communities, at home and abroad.”
Scrolling through the most recent news we can see how the Central Asian contingent was involved in attacks carried out in Iran, Turkey and, according to the claim released, in Russia. The movement’s reach is therefore increasing, causing concern among the security forces of several countries. The timing of the Moscow attack does not appear to be causal, as Webber also points out: “After the Hamas attack and the Israeli military response on October 7, the Islamic State intensified efforts to incite its supporters to violence and increased its external operational activities.” Also the distraction of the Russian intelligence services, with their eyes focused on Ukraine, Syria and Africa, would have played a role, facilitating the terrorists’ covert work.
The large number of victims in Moscow and the media attention received could further motivate members of the Islamic State of Khorasan, with new attacks against Russia not to be ruled out. “Russia was identified as the main enemy along with the United States in 2014 and its status as a priority target was elevated following the military campaign in Syria. This is demonstrated, for example, by the suicide attack on the Russian embassy in Afghanistan in September 2022, also linked to the positive relationship established by the Kremlin with the Taliban”.
It is likely that being targeted will lead Moscow to tighten its attitude towards Muslims present on the territory of the Federation, a prospect which is confirmed in the words of Temur Umarov, expert from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center: “I believe that the Russian security forces will be even more suspicious of Muslim migrants coming from Central Asia and the Caucasus and that migration policies towards Russia will be made more stringent”. A dynamic that will predictably also extend to Central Asia, also considering that the regimes of the region have continued, often even making it even harsher, the anti-religious policies that were typical of the Soviet domination of the area and which are among the causes which led to radicalisation. “The repression against members of the society’s religious community will grow after the attack in Moscow, in all the republics of Central Asia but above all in Tajikistan,” continues Umarov, “even if at the moment the regional authorities are observing the evolution of situation, limiting itself to suggesting caution to its citizens present in Russian urban centers”.
Second Valentina Chupik, lawyer who works with immigrants in Russia, 2,500 reports of acts of aggression emerged in the two days immediately following the attack in Moscow. Even if the situation has worsened in recent days, foreign communities have long been targets of repression by the police: raids on factories that employ migrant workers, in mosques and in the usual meeting places of these minorities are a constant and only in 2023 the Russian authorities would have proceeded with the expulsion of 15 thousand people.
