Vladimir Putin’s Russia can be stopped in Ukraine. In perhaps the most critical moment of the war, with Kiev short of weapons and ammunition, the analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) – an American think tank that monitors the conflict – describes a more fluid and less obvious picture than you might think.
“The West has an advantage, but it must decide to exploit it. All it has to do is take a stand” and mobilize to support Ukraine’s war effort. But what does ‘mobilise’ mean? “It means increasing its military production, making greater use of its current military capabilities and economic assets, accepting a higher threshold of suffering and risk now to avoid greater costs, suffering and risk in the future.”
Zelensky: “Now it’s our turn, after Putin he will aim for Europe”
“For Putin, we are a satellite of the Russian Federation,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tells CBS, describing the risks of an extension of the conflict.
“For now – he adds – it’s us. Then Kazakhstan, the Baltic countries, then Poland, Germany. Or at least a part of Germany. Even tomorrow, missiles can arrive in every country. This aggression and Putin’s army they can get to Europe. And at that point the citizens of the United States and the soldiers of the United States will have to protect Europe as members of NATO.”
Many Western countries pledged to support Ukraine by supplying Kiev with weapons in the first 25 months of the conflict. The United States has played a leading role so far, but the picture changed at the end of 2023 with the halt to the $60 billion package currently stalled in Congress.
The funds allocated by the USA, says Zelensky, must be evaluated correctly: “Tens of billions – he tells CBS – remain in the USA. The money allocated by Congress remains, 75%, in the United States. The ammunition is given to us , but the production happens there and the money stays in the US. And the taxes stay in the US.”
The crux of US aid
After the Senate’s green light, the crucial law still needs to be debated by the House of Representatives. The stoppage of US supplies has put the Ukrainian armed forces in serious crisis in various sectors of the country: “Ukraine must make drastic decisions and choose whether to withdraw from some areas”, the Pentagon said recently through its spokeswoman.
Zelensky underlines the need for rapid approval of US aid by the US Congress during a conversation with the Speaker of the House of Representatives in Washington, Mike Johnson. Zelensky himself reports this in a post on X: “I spoke with Speaker Johnson, and I personally thanked him, both parties, the American people and President Biden for their support for Ukraine since the beginning of full-scale invasion of Russia”.
“I briefed President Johnson on the situation on the battlefield, especially on the dramatic increase in Russian aerial terror,” adds Zelensky. “Last week alone, 190 missiles, 140 Shahed drones and 700 guided aerial bombs were launched against Ukrainian cities and communities. The largest hydroelectric power plant was blocked. “” In this situation – he underlined – the rapid passage of US aid to Ukraine by Congress is vital. We recognize that there are differing opinions in the House of Representatives on how to proceed, but the key is to keep the issue of aid to Ukraine as a unifying factor.”
“We also discussed the importance of cutting off Russia’s sources of financing for its war as soon as possible and using frozen Russian assets to benefit Ukraine. In this regard, we also count on the leadership of Congress,” he concludes.
The new phase of the war, Kharkiv in the crosshairs
The war should enter a new phase starting from May, when Russia’s new offensive could take shape. Putin, after his victory in the presidential elections, repeatedly referred to the need to create a ‘buffer zone’ that in the Kharkiv region would guarantee greater security to the territories controlled by Russia.
In the past few hours, Russian troops have launched new attacks in eastern Ukraine, with heavy fighting reported around the towns of Avdiivka and Bakhmut. In its daily report on the situation on the ground, the Ukrainian General Staff listed 11 partial Russian advances in the direction of four locations. Along the entire front line, from the south to the east of Ukraine, a total of 48 battles broke out, according to the report. There were also Russian air and artillery attacks near Kharkiv.
What the West must do
Kharkiv itself could be the new main theater of the war of attrition, with Moscow continuing to pour men into the front essentially regardless of the losses. Russia has long invested around a third of its GDP in the defense sector, ensuring the constant functioning of the military machine.
On the other hand, an adequate level of commitment from Western countries is needed, which – according to the ISW – must “take specific and immediate steps. They should give sufficient military aid and other support requested by Ukraine to start operating on the battlefield again “.
The West should also help Ukraine exploit weaknesses in the Russian military, with particular attention to the possibility of striking the Black Sea fleet. According to Ukraine, Moscow may have lost about a third of its fleet. “Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West – and will likely lose – if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin,” the ISW summary.
