The ruble fell against the dollar and the euro on Monday but held its ground against the yuan, as the passing of a late-June fiscal deadline and the central bank’s cut in daily forex sales combined to put pressure on the Russian currency.
At 0825 GMT, the ruble was trading down 0.4% at 86.05 against the dollar. It was down 2% at 93.74 against the euro.
Last month, trading in both currencies shifted from the Moscow Exchange to the less liquid and more volatile interbank market following US sanctions against the exchange.
The composite dollar-ruble average rate, calculated by LSEG and based on data from international brokers and counterparties, stood at 85.74.
The ruble initially fell below 11.80 to the Chinese yuan, but recovered to 11.72 by late morning, up 0.1%.
Traders said several factors will weigh on the ruble at the start of the new month. It no longer has the support of exporters who convert forex into rubles to pay end-of-month taxes, as the deadline to do so was last Friday.
“Today, at the start of trading, we expect continued pressure on the national currency against the backdrop of a decrease in the supply of yuan from exporters, after the June peak of tax payments has passed,” said Bogdan Zvarich of Banki.ru, forecasting a push of the yuan towards 12 rubles.
A second factor is that the central bank from Monday will reduce daily sales of foreign currency to the equivalent of 8.4 billion rubles a day, compared to 11.8 billion rubles in the first half of the year. The sales reflect flows into and out of the National Wealth Fund and are separate from the currency operations that the bank conducts on behalf of the Ministry of Finance.
Finally, last month the government reduced the mandatory share of foreign currency earnings that exporters must convert into rubles to 60% from 80%, easing capital controls in part thanks to the ruble’s recent strength.
Brent crude, a global benchmark for Russia’s top export, was up 0.65% at $85.55 a barrel. (Reuters reporting, writing by Mark Trevelyan, editing by Christina Fincher)
