In France, for the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic, the Lepenist ultra-right now seems truly one step away from power: a scenario considered unthinkable for decades. It is the fundamental response of yesterday’s first round of the early legislative elections, called by surprise only 3 weeks ago by President Emmanuel Macron, the great loser of the new ballot. With their allies, the ultranationalists of National Gathering (Rn) obtained about 33% of the votes, against 28% for the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (socialists, communists, gauche radical Mélenchonist, Greens). The Macronians, who came in third, got 20%.
The Le Penists and their allies managed to win 40 out of 577 seats right from the first round, against the 32 that went to the left-wing coalition. Only 4 were immediately won by the Macronians. At the end of the lightning election campaign, the xenophobic party of Marine Le Pen and the 28-year-old prime ministerial candidate Jordan Bardella has made inroads in a large portion of peripheral and rural “deep France”. So much so that, according to the projections of some polling institutes, it is now approaching the objective of an absolute majority of 289 seats in the National Assembly. After the run-off elections next Sunday, according to the Ipsos institute, RN and its allies could win between 230 and 280 seats.
The atypically centrist coalition, on the other hand, is in disastrous decline Together for the Republic Macron’s vote, given in perspective at a very low level: between 70 and 100 deputies, according to Ipsos. The left, the institute claims, could get between 125 and 165 seats.
Great satisfaction, without triumphalist tones, was expressed by Bardella and Le Pen, the latter among those elected in the first round, in the far North “emptied” of the old industries and which has become one of the strongest ultranationalist bastions. Nonetheless, an RN triumph in the battles is not automatic, due to the combined strategies of the other parties, among which an anti-Lepenist reflex has been triggered, even if in no particular order. Several leaders, starting with the Macronian Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, are now hammering the slogan “everything except the far right”. This will translate into concertations, in the various constituencies, to “bar the way” to Rn: both the gauche, like the Macronians, should withdraw from the ballots quite a few of their late candidates, in order to facilitate the task of candidates of other colors better placed to beat the Lepenists. A strategy which, according to experts, could actually distance the RN from that absolute majority once again loudly requested, on election night, by Bardella and Le Pen. The sides will have until tomorrow evening to make their moves official in the constituencies still at stake.
At 66.7%, participation was much higher than in previous elections, reflecting the high stakes perceived by voters. In many constituencies, the battle towards the runoffs has already begun, with bitter tones. It will probably be no holds barred. The most important issues for voters, in the order given by the surveys, are purchasing power, immigration, health and safety.
