Germany does not import from Russia, even if it is not safe from gas price increases. The scenario outlined by Omv risks putting Austria and Slovakia in particular, still very dependent on Gazprom, in difficulty, but it would also have a direct impact on other countries, including Italy, which would be forced to quickly replace around 15 million cubic meters of gas per day that it still receives from Russia via Ukraine: these are the volumes that entered Tarvisio on average in the first quarter according to the latest Mase data, equal to a tenth of total imports, but in March – with the Livorno regasifier stopped – we reached 25 million cubic meters per day.
Counting both pipeline flows and LNG cargoes, in May Russia once again overtook the United States as Europe’s supplier according to Icis, with a market share of 14% – the highest for two years – against 15 % of the USA. The phenomenon is linked to economic reasons and “fortunately it is likely that it will not last”, comments Tom Marzec-Manser, Head of Gas Analytics at Icis. «It is still impressive – he adds – to see the Russian market share rising in Europe, after everything we have been through and all the efforts made»
If OMV’s fears come true, annual supplies of 8-10 billion cubic meters could soon “disappear” from the European market, estimates Jacopo Casadei, Energy Aspects analyst, according to whom the disputes with Gazprom are “one of the major risks” for the balance between supply and demand in the Old Continent.
Replacing lost volumes quickly is not an impossible challenge, especially for Italy, which has many supply routes. The real risk is that a rush to procure alternative supplies could be very costly. Today, unlike in 2022, Europe cannot rely too much on its ability to save gas: consumption is at its lowest level for twenty years.
The verdict awarding Uniper billions in damages could also be only the first of a long series. Gazprom’s other historic customers have also opened similar disputes, including Eni, which started arbitration proceedings in May 2023 requesting compensation, the amount of which it did not disclose. The San Donato group had signed a contract with the Russians lasting until 2035, which originally envisaged supplies of 22 billion cubic meters per year (more than 60 million per day).
