New Delhi, 5 June 2024 – The Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi wins the electionsbut loses consensus and will therefore be forced to form a coalition government for his third term.
The numbers
His party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies won 293 seats (45% of the votes according to electoral commission data), but the opposition India front took home at least 232 (equal to 41%). Almost a head-to-head that Modi and the BJP apparently didn’t expect. How did they not expect the BJP to stop at just 240 seats, losing 64 compared to 2019, while Raul Gandhi’s Congress rose to 99 seatsgaining 47. Obviously this will not prevent Modi from being reconfirmed at the helm of the government, given that in India at least 272 out of the total 543 in Parliament are enough to govern, but it explains why before thanking the voters, the prime minister summoned his allies.
The decline in turnout
In the six weeks that the voting operations lasted, divided into seven phases, approximately 642 million Indians voted: 66.3% of the 968 million registered voters. The turnout at the polls it therefore decreased compared to the 67.4% recorded in 2019, probably also due to the effect of the record heat recorded in the last stages.
Third mandate, but the opposition rejoices
The 73-year-old leader celebrated the victory only last night, but said he was nevertheless convinced that the result of the elections will allow him to carry forward his program. “This third term will be characterized by big decisions. The country will write a new chapter in its development. I guarantee it,” Modi promised before a crowd of supporters in the capital New Delhi.
There was a festive atmosphere starting in the morning at the headquarters of the Congress party, where songs and drums began to play as soon as the first results arrived. And where the arrival of Rahul Gandhi, flanked by his mother Sonia and the party president Karghe, was greeted by endless applause. “Voters have punished the BJP’s arrogance,” Gandhi said. “The country said to Narendra Modi: ‘We don’t want you'”, commented Gandhi, re-elected with a good margin in the southern constituency of Wayanad.
Instability is feared
Modi will be sworn in for a third term on June 8, local media report, after key allies vowed to continue supporting a government led by him. For the first time he will need the support from regional allies whose loyalty has wavered over the years, which could complicate the government’s reform agenda, he notes India Today.
Yesterday the Indian stock market reacted to Modi’s “halved victory” with a sharp decline.
