Southern Africa has been suffering from an extremely persistent drought for many months, as NASA recently warned on its social networks, a situation to which the global climate phenomenon El Niño contributed in particular.
A disastrous drought worsened by El Niño
The global climate phenomenon El Niño has been present since the summer of 2023. It is known to considerably increase global average temperatures, but also alters the distribution of precipitation in different regions of the world.
For example, provoke wetter conditions in northwestern South America, parts of eastern Africa, and regions from California to Florida.
However, this climatic phenomenon also has the opposite effect, i.e. it generates drier conditions in some parts of Oceania, Asia and North South America, as well as in central and southern Africa. It is precisely in this sector that the situation is most problematic at the beginning of 2024. In fact, Even before the appearance of El Niño there was a significant drought in Angola, Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Lesotho.
In Sicily the drought is now becoming extreme, water rationed for over 1 million people
In these areas, between January and March 2023, half of the normal rainfall fell and the arrival of El Niño subsequently worsened the drought, which had serious repercussions on the region’s crops. In Zambia, half of the crops have been destroyed by the intense drought of recent months. 1.4 million cattle are now considered at risk of dying due to water shortages across much of southern Africa, while the unhealthy state of the remaining water has already led to acholera epidemic in Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi.
Will the situation improve next year with La Niña?
As we had already warned from Meteored in recent weeks, the El Niño phenomenon will end soon, probably at the end of this springto give way to La Niña at the end of the year, a phenomenon that will bring more frequent rainfall to the regions mentioned above.
However, it is The change in weather is unlikely to be sudden, On the contrary. The weather forecast for the coming months is pessimistic for southern Africa, with rainfall continuing to decrease in areas where drought has a long history and is particularly dangerous for the population. It will take several months for the effects of El Niño to wear offmeaning rain won’t return in abundance to southern Africa anytime soon.
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As a result, the 2024 harvest season is already in danger in many areas. For this reason the United Nations has asked for help at an international level to try to avoid the risk of large-scale famine in the countries mentioned above. An estimated 20 million people are currently at risk, a number that could increase if the situation does not improve in the coming months. The only current hope lies in the return of La Niña at the end of 2024.
If this climate phenomenon really happens to be El Niño, as most forecasts predict, rains could return to these regions between the winter of 2024 and the spring of 2025, which should occur and improve crops and water supply for a large number of inhabitants.
