Different coronal mass ejections (CME) are heading towards Earth. A new forecast model from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center suggests that 2 or 3 of these solar plasma clouds could merge to form a powerful “Cannibalistic CME“. Cannibalistic CMEs form when fast-moving CMEs overtake slower CMEs in front of them: internal shock waves created by such collisions trigger geomagnetic storms as they hit Earth’s magnetic field.
In consideration of the expected conditions, NOAA’s SWPC has issued a warning for May 11 for “severe” G4 storm, for the first time since 2005.
The G4 level, specifically, involves widespread problems with voltage control and impacts on the electrical grid that could affect some protection systems. Satellite and low-frequency radio navigation systems such as GPS may be disrupted, and spacecraft operations may also experience problems.
G4 geomagnetic storm warning
“The geomagnetic storm warning has been updated from G2 (moderate) to G4 (severe) because the giant sunspot AR3664 continues to hurl CME towards Earth,” explains the specialized site SpaceWeather.com, edited by astrophysicist Tony Phillips. Following the X2.2 solar flare, “there are now at least 4 clouds of particles heading towards us“. Here’s the barrage of explosions captured by NASA’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory:
In the last few days they have been issued countless powerful solar flaresincluding a colossal X-class flare yesterday peaking at 11:13 am ET. Solar flares are eruptions from the surface of the Sun which emit intense bursts of electromagnetic radiation. I am classified based on size in groups of letters, where class X is the most powerful. Then there are class M flares which are 10 times less powerful than class class C and finally, class A flares, which are 10 times weaker than class B flares and have no obvious consequences on Earth. Within each class, numbers 1 to 10 (and higher for class X flares) describe the relative strength of a flare.
The sunspot AR3664
There sunspot AR3664 it has become so large that it is comparable to the great sunspot of Carrington of 1859. Stretching almost 200 thousand km from end to end, AR3664 is 15 times larger than Earth. The Carrington sunspot is famous because in August and September 1859 it emitted a series of intense solar flares and CMEs. The resulting geomagnetic storms sent telegraph offices into flames and unleashed auroras from Cuba to Hawaii. Since then, the “Carrington Event” has become a cornerstone of space weather in pop culture.
Studies suggest that Carrington-class storms do occur once every 40-60 years. There’s no need to worry, though. “The CMEs currently on their way to Earth, even if combined, would likely be no match for the monstrous CME of 1859. The Carrington event will not be repeated this weekend. However, it is wise to keep an eye on this active growing region while the Earth is in its impact zone,” SpaceWeather.com points out
The Northern Lights
Given the expected space weather, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora in parts of the United States over the weekend. Current forecasts have the northern half of the United States in the viewing path, with the best chances falling in northern Montana, Minnesota, Wisconsin and most of North Dakota.
Radio blackout also in Italy
Powerful solar flares like the one observed yesterday can cause shortwave radio blackout on the side of the Earth illuminated by the Sun at the time of the eruption. Therefore, yesterday’s class
THE blackout radio are due to the strong pulse of X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation emitted during the eruption. The radiation travels towards Earth at the speed of light and ionizes (provides electric charge) the upper part of Earth’s atmosphere. (These ionizing X-rays are not to be confused with coronal mass ejections by which plasma and magnetic fields are ejected from the Sun, which travel at slower speeds, often taking several days to reach Earth.)
This ionization causes a high-density environment for high-frequency shortwave radio signals. Radio waves interacting with electrons in ionized layers lose energy due to more frequent collisions, and this can lead to degradation or complete absorption of radio signals, according to NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.
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