French Elections: First Round Polls Suggest Right-Wing Victory

Two days after the first round of legislative elections in France the latest polls provide a snapshot of what the political situation in the country could be.

The far right of National Rally of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen could in fact get close to an absolute majority in view of the first electoral appointment scheduled for Sunday 30 June. Seven days later, on July 7, the second round will be held.

The Rassemblement National towards 36 percent of the consensus

The projections give the Rassemblement National as favorite with 36 percent of the vote followed by the alliance of New Popular Frontcomposed of the Socialist Party, La France Insoumise, the Greens and the French Communist Party, between 27.5 and 29 percent. Only in third place is the party of President Emmanuel Macron with between 19.5 and 21 percent of the vote.

The French are currently torn between the prospect of an absolute far-right majority or the absence of a clear one that would lead to further political instability. The threshold for a party to obtain an absolute majority is 289 seats out of the 577 National Assembly.

How do legislative elections work?

The National Assembly has 577 seats. The role of the deputy is to propose, modify and vote on laws. In the first round of the elections, on June 30, French voters will choose one of the candidates running in their constituency.

If a candidate manages to obtain an absolute majority of votes (more than 50 percent of the votes with at least 25 percent of registered voters), he automatically wins. Unlike presidential elections, the abstention rate is therefore decisive.

At the end of this first round, If no candidate obtains an absolute majority, a second round is organized for July 7. Any candidate who receives more than 12.5 percent of the vote can advance to a runoff.

The candidate who obtains the most votes in the second round wins a seat in the National Assembly.