Extreme weather events are increasing. Droughts, floods, cyclones and tornadoes, which often cause damage and casualties, are the direct consequence of global warming. With Giovanni De Palmameteorological technician of AbruzzoWeather we talked about the risks faced by Abruzzo and how the progressive warming of the atmosphere affects these events.
Will summer 2024 be at risk of drought for Abruzzo?
Probably yes because, unfortunately, autumn and winter were two seasons with little rainfall and temperatures above seasonal averages. Furthermore, very little snow fell on the Apennine mountains which usually constitute a real “reservoir” of water for the summer months. The rainfall deficit of the winter months adds to a season, summer, usually lacking in significant rainfall.
The pendulum of the climate crisis is swinging again with increasingly frequent extreme phenomena. What should we expect in terms of heat waves, droughts, floods and bushfires?
With ongoing climate changes, the rises of the sub-tropical anticyclone (or those of North African origin) are becoming increasingly frequent, favoring long heat waves and temperatures well above seasonal averages. In essence, compared to a few decades ago, the rises of the subtropical or African anticyclone have become more frequent in the summer period and with a longer duration than normal, precisely due to climate change which, in fact, has favored the movement towards north of the high pressure band usually present over North African regions. Sudden heat waves alternate, more and more often, with thunderstorms and hailstorms.
What is the cause of these sudden changes?
The increase in global temperature has, in fact, accelerated climate change and we are increasingly seeing the arrival of summer disturbances after long periods of anomalous heat and stable weather: the accumulation of humidity in the lower layers and the high temperatures favored by the rises of the African anticyclone, they can lead, in the event of infiltrations of fresh air of Atlantic origin, to the development of intense storm systems capable of generating flash floods, hailstorms and even tornadoes.
What adaptation measures are needed to protect the territory from the worst effects, such as those caused by floods?
Unfortunately, it is impossible to defend oneself from the effects of violent storms with precipitation that, often, manages to exceed, in a very short time, even the accumulations that, usually, are recorded in 3-4 months. So much rain fallen in a very short time can cause damage, flooding and considerable inconvenience, especially in urban areas, but not only. What I would recommend is to follow the weather forecast, especially before embarking on excursions and trips out of town: not the apps on smartphones, but to use information written by professionals, complete with written bulletin.
Long-term climate projections paint an increasingly hotter and drier southern Europe, with devastating consequences for the agricultural sector. Right?
Exactly, this is a problem that concerns Italy above all: our southern regions are at risk of desertification, in particular Sicily, but our region is also suffering from the lack of rainfall, especially the Adriatic sector, where it rains in recent years less and less with accumulations below the annual averages. Just to give an example, in the city of Pescara, where the average annual rainfall is around 700 millimeters (1 mm equals 1 liter of water per square metre), only 238 mm fell in 2019, and 269 mm in 2020, in 2021 393 mm. This year, only 155 mm of rain has fallen since January 1st, significantly below the seasonal average.
How can we adapt and prepare for ongoing climate changes?
We must be aware that, in the coming years, the situation can only worsen: that there is the risk of seeing mild winters with little rain and less snow, with very hot summers also characterized by summer breaks with marked episodes bad weather such as storms and large hail.
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