Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz had promised it after the first round between the leaders ended on 17 June with gray smoke: the agreement on the new EU leaders would arrive soon.
In the end, the agreement in principle took shape in videoconference, uniting their two voices and those of the other negotiators of the pro-European axis made up of Popular, Socialists and Liberals. The face of the new European Commission, barring twists and turns, it will still be that of Ursula von der Leyen.
Alongside the EPP Sptizenkandidatin, the liberal Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas will take the reins of EU foreign policy. While the Portuguese socialist Antonio Costa will orchestrate the work of the European Council.
A trio which will most likely be joined by the Maltese Roberta Metsola – in the PPE quota – for an encore in the Eurochamber. A list of names that had been “stable” for weeks but which was weighed down by the upward movement of the People’s Party who, in the wake of their electoral triumph, had put forward the request for a relay at the helm of the European Council, thus risking blowing up the entire table.
The either/or was ultimately set aside, the doubts dispelled and the draft agreement will now be able to land on the table of the leaders of the Twenty-Seven on Thursday in Brussels for the final green light. With or without the support of Giorgia Meloni’s Conservatives and a Viktor Orban who is already furious over an agreement that will stem the European right.
The six negotiators – alongside Macron and Scholz, also Pedro Sanchez, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Donald Tusk and Mark Rutte – met for a restricted round with the same package of candidates on the table. No surprises, but work to refine a pact that follows the Ursula majority protagonist of the last legislature. And that he was called to take into account votes, profiles and geographical areas of the continent. The final outcome, is the refrain repeated by some diplomatic sources, in the face of the advance of the sovereignists and political instability, “could not have been different”. The sense of urgency was shared by many. This is also why the People’s Party ultimately dropped the relay clause at the summit of the European Council: the agreement provides that the Portuguese Antonio Costa will be the new president for an initial period of two and a half years, in line with the Treaties.
It will then be up to the leaders, as per practice, to decide later whether to extend the appointment for the second part of the five-year mandate. Respect for the status quo thus made it possible to arrive at white smoke. However, the Italian Prime Minister did not take part in the negotiations. An exclusion which, after the trail of discontent over the last week, was in any case mitigated with a key reassurance: von der Leyen will negotiate behind closed doors with her the price of Rome’s support for an agreement for which a qualified majority will in any case suffice (at least 15 countries representing 65% of the EU population) and over which therefore no leader will have veto power. In exchange, the guarantee is that Meloni “will get a portfolio of weight” in the next Commission, as per his request. Which, according to Bloomberg, could be an executive vice-presidency of the European Commission.
If everything goes smoothly at the table of EU leaders, the last obstacle ahead for von der Leyen to get an encore will be the vote in mid-July at the plenary of the European Chamber. Where the unknown of the snipers remains alive. The European Socialists, through the group leader Iratxe Garcia Perez fresh from re-election, have already made it known that the agreement – although negotiated by Scholz – “is not a blank check” and that their support will depend on the program that the German will be able to draw up .
A line also shared by the leader of the liberal group, the Macronian Valérie Hayer, for whom the majority coalition in the European Parliament is “pro-European”. “There is no room for the Conservatives” who, she attacked after receiving the renewal at the helm of Renew, represent “the far right with Giorgia Meloni’s party, the Polish PiS and Reconquête in France”. In the Chamber, the president of the European Commission will need an absolute majority: 361 deputies out of 720. The EPP-S&D-Renew axis, the architect of the agreement on top jobs, has a total of 399 deputies. A narrow margin: for this reason von der Leyen will continue to work in the next few hours to seek further support from the other forces. The Greens could give her an important support.
Reproduction reserved © Copyright ANSA
