June, the projections warn Italy for the expected temperatures

First previews for next June

June: the latest projections from Central Europe warn Italy about the expected temperatures. Summer 2024 could in fact start with a rather marked climatic anomaly in many of our regions.

As we always remember, this type of forecast serves to provide a general and summary idea of ​​the expected weather on a large scale. However, thanks to scientific progress, seasonal trends have now become a valid scientific prognosis toolwith decisive contributions in longer-term climate assessment.

Having said this, the first thing to consider, based on the data that has just arrived, is that already with the start of June the temperatures could result well above averagewith deviations from the reference values ​​of even +3°C over a large part of central-western Europe, including Italy. The cause is to be found in the particular arrangement of the high and low pressure areas: we will most likely already have to deal with the fearful one African anticyclone.
As shown in the map The heat will particularly affect the regions of Central-South and the two major islands: given the origin of the air masses (inside the Sahara desert) it is reasonable to expect the first real bursts of heat, with the thermometers ready to splash widely above 34/35°C.

Temperatures above average in June up to +3°C (official source: ecmwf)
But be careful, this does not mean that the entire month will be filled with sunshine and warm weather. The downside of this particular synoptic condition is represented by the risk of extreme weather events. The surplus of heat and increasing humidity in the lower layers could provide the necessary fuel for it development of massive storm cells whenever of drafts of cooler air and unstable they will be able to break through the anticyclone. In fact, it happens that after a heat wave, at the first cold entry at high altitude (usually descending from Northern Europe), the convective motions (hot air rising) are particularly enhanced, causing the genesis of violent stormswith high risk of hailstorms: it would be the Northin this case, the area most at risk.

 
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