Late last week, European ambassadors agreed “in principle” on the negotiating frameworks for Moldova and Ukraine’s bids for EU membership. In the case of Moldova, all 27 EU member states agreed with the assessment which confirmed that the country had completed the necessary reforms and was now well positioned to begin the process of integrating into the bloc. An ‘Intergovernmental Conference’ (IGC), which will formalize the candidatures and negotiating frameworks for both countries, is now expected to be agreed in Luxembourg by the end of June.
Meanwhile, Moldova’s population of 2.5 million people is preparing to vote in the national elections that will secure their democratic future in Europe. On October 20, Moldova will hold presidential elections and a referendum on EU integration. The two key polls take place amid a concerted destabilization campaign by Russia, which casts a long shadow over Moldovan life through the occupation of its territory, support for its front politicians and media, and also ongoing challenges economic, security and humanitarian issues caused by the large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
EU membership has always been a key goal under President Maia Sandu’s pro-European government, but Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine – Moldova’s neighbor – has added a sense of urgency. In four months, Moldova will decide between political and economic dependence on Russia or democratic European integration. Moldova’s resilience is already being tested by the Kremlin’s efforts to sow social discord and undermine the EU integration process through extensive disinformation campaigns, polarizing narratives, hate speech, discrimination and cyber attacks.
But as Moldova develops strong alliances abroad, it faces enormous challenges at home. Russian forces have occupied the eastern territory of Transnistria since 1992 and continue to promote separatism. In February, the entity’s officials asked the Russian Duma to defend it against “increasing pressure from Moldova.” Days later, the governor of Gagauzia – an autonomous region in southern Moldova – traveled to Moscow to ask for Russia’s support, saying the Gagauz minority was suffering oppression. Exiled oligarchs wanted by the Moldovan state for large-scale corruption and embezzlement are teaming up with pro-Russia proxies and parties to aggressively advance the Kremlin’s agenda, erode public trust in Moldova’s pro-EU leadership and fuel social polarization and Euroscepticism. Last October, President Sandu accused Russia of plotting to use foreign saboteurs to violently overthrow his government.
EU membership is a national security priority for Moldova and, as noted by European ambassadors, alignment is well underway. In May, Moldova signed a security and defense partnership with the EU, becoming the first non-EU country to join such an agreement. The European Peace Fund (EPF) is funding non-lethal equipment for the Moldovan armed forces, as well as improving operational effectiveness. Last month, Moldova celebrated the first anniversary of the EU Partnership Mission (EUPM), the first civilian mission under the EU’s common security and defense policy, which supports efforts to address hybrid threats. Furthermore, the European Union Support Center for Internal Security and Border Management of Moldova has been operational since 2022 to reduce the threat of drug, weapons and human trafficking and other cross-border crimes.
Fighting corruption and countering disinformation remain cornerstones for Moldova’s integrity and sovereignty, while vulnerabilities related to these efforts represent serious security threats successfully exploited by anti-European actors. As it fights an unprecedented hybrid war from Moscow aimed at undermining its social cohesion and democratic order, Moldova continues to advance with large-scale domestic reforms despite significant resource limitations. In a wide variety of ways, Moldova has demonstrated that it is ready to embrace the accession procedure and advance on its European path. Advancing dialogue with the EU is vital to the elections and referendum in October and offers the EU and the wider Western alliance a potentially major victory as competition with Russia intensifies. Any further bulwarks, delays or perceived stagnation in this process could undermine public confidence that Moldova has a future within Europe.
