There France which presents itself in the presence of this round of European elections it’s anything but cohesive. The thousand questions related to war in Ukraine and the president’s hawkish intentions Emmnauel Macronthe street unrest which is pitting the pro-Palestinian world and the French Jews against each other, the risk of attacks which forces the maximum alert: all it takes is a breath of wind to set Paris on fire in the coming weeks. Last, but not least, the “joke” of the five coffins placed at the foot of the Eiffel Tower behind which the Russian FSB could be.
Who are the leading candidates in the European elections in France
Next weekend, 50 million French voters will be called to the polls to choose 81 MEPs. But what do the polls say? Less than a week before the vote, the National Rally continues to gain support while the government coalition seems to be retreating. The RN election campaign, led by Jordan Bardellahas made the party gain two percentage points from March to now, reaching 33% of voting intentions. Valery Hayerthe leading candidate of Macron’s coalition, lost those two points, stopping at 16% with a minimal margin of error.
Marine Le Pen, leader of RN, is not among the candidates, but the success that her party “risks” could lead her to glory. Moreover, the upheavals that are leading the French towards a platform like Lepen’s are moving all of Europe. A result that could lead Le Pen to fulfill her old dream of presidencyachievable in 2027. Bardella, for his part, is throwing water at the party’s mill: less free movement for migrants within the union, easing pressure on Russia, stopping green initiatives.
Under the blows of the “Europe of nations” by Bardella & co. Hayer is repeatedly falling, failing to make a mark on the voters in the name of a European model in partnership with Ukraine, characterized by a strengthening of the Union’s defenses and industry. From the stages of Macron’s voices, the refrain are more or less the same: underline the mortality of Europe and the need to defend the project at 27, inviting voters not to use the European elections as a referendum on Macron. Hayer herself has been the protagonist of controversy from opponents who point the finger at the prime minister Gabriel Attalguilty of obscuring his personality by doing mansplaining. And, in fact, it was he who “broke in” in support of Hayer, intervening massively in his public outings, to the point of being the one to confront Bardella last month. The 29-year-old’s challenge to 35-year-old Attal, the first openly homosexual French prime minister, represents the challenge for the domination of next generation French politics.
The European elections as a referendum on Macron?
The fear is, in fact, that citizens could pour out their frustration over the mismanagement of the economy, the agricultural sector and even their grievances linked to the Olympics on the European vote. Just in these days, among other things, hundreds of Spanish and French farmers they returned to protest, blocking traffic along the main border crossings between the two countries. The mobilization, which in the Iberian country was not supported by the major trade associations, aims to draw attention to the situation of the sector in the midst of the electoral campaign for the European elections. Farmers have returned to demanding fair prices and greater controls on food products from non-EU countries.
Looking to the left, one is struck by the rebirth of socialist phoenixthanks to its leading candidate, the magnetic Raphael Glucksmann, who is betting everything on Marseille, promising to be the “big and beautiful surprise” of these elections, inviting young people to vote for him. Head to head with Macron in the polls, he made the battle against abstentionism the objective of his electoral campaign. Glucksmann is deeply convinced that “in six days” it would have been possible to put an end to the Macon/Le Pen “deadly duel”. From France Insoumise, Manon Aubry carries out very similar battles, although his preferences are around 8.5%. The green is in danger Marie Touissaintwhich risks slipping below the critical threshold of 5%.
The consequences of the European elections on economic choices and the stability of the government
Post-European realignments will have a decidedly significant impact not only on domestic politics but also on economic choices of the near future. A week before the elections, the French executive had confirmed its political line, excluding any form of austerity, the day after S&P Global Ratings rating downgraded sovereign of the country, reopening the debate on how to reduce the public deficit. The agency cut France’s rating for the first time since 2013, due to “deterioration of the fiscal position” of the country. For “return to healthy public finances“, the government “will continue on exactly the same path, without speeding up or slowing down“, the Minister of Economy and Finance promised Bruno Le Maire: the minister then firmly ruled out any tax increase in 2025, along the same lines as Macron. Le Maire, in office for seven years, had argued that spending and rising deficits in the face of Covid and soaring energy prices had saved the French economy.
This week, therefore, promises to be a blast for Paris. Last Monday, both France Insoumise and RN presented two motions of no confidence who, however, did not reach the 289 necessary to oust the executive. Meanwhile, Macron is being targeted by criticism due to his massive intervention in the campaign, in an attempt to put pressure on him from above.
Meanwhile, the head of the Elysée anxiously awaits the visit of Joe Biden on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings. Precisely from here, his speech on prime time TV is expected on Thursday evening to talk about elections, the war in Gaza and Ukraine. Then, there will be electoral silence.
