AGI – The local elections held on Sunday in Türkiye will be remembered for triumph of the republican party Chp on the conservative party AKP of the president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who over the years has shaped him in his own image and likeness, keeping him in power for 22 years. With 34% of the votes, the AKP loses the scepter of the country’s leading party, a defeat which on the one hand confirms the good state of Turkish democracy (78.3% turnout), and on the other opens up scenarios in view of the 2028 presidential elections.
A tired Erdogan has hinted that he will not run, also because the current constitution would not allow him to do so. Now the problem extends to the succession within the party: yesterday’s elections represented only the last act of the AKP cycle, which has been in decline for years and suffering from the total centrality acquired by Erdogan himself.
From prison to government
The rise of the Turkish president began with the foundation of the AKP, a conservative party of Islamic inspiration which was born in August 2001 and just a year later became the country’s leading party, garnering 34.3% of the vote. Erdogan, who had been mayor in Istanbul, has just returned from a year in prison for having recited a religious poem during a rally and is still banned from holding public office. The veto falls with the reform of the constitution of the same year and the current Turkish president can enter parliament in the 2003 by-elections. The 10% threshold bars the entry of several smaller forces and with 34.3% the AKP obtains the majority of seats in parliament and elected Erdogan as prime minister in March of the same year.
For the AKP it will be the first of 22 years in government, Erdogan will remain premier for 9 consecutive yearsthe. An ascent confirmed by the 2004 administrative elections; the AKP confirms itself as the first party with 46% of the overall preferences. The new map of Turkey sees the opposition confined to the Aegean and Mediterranean coast and to a few provinces in the north-east, while the metropolises, the Black Sea and Anatolia are firmly in the hands of Erdogan, who is also starting to grow in the south-east in Kurdish majority, where pro-Kurdish parties win. A scenario that will undergo little variation for the following 22 years, until Sunday’s vote. A result that is even consolidated in the 2007 parliamentary elections. The AKP obtained 46.58% of the preferences and elected 341 parliamentarians (at the time the parliament had 550 members), chosen in 80 provinces out of a total of 81. It is the first time in the country’s history.
Constitutional reform
These are the years of the AKP alone in power, the largest majority obtained in parliament, the years in which Erdogan fights so that the President of the Republic is not chosen by parliament, but directly by the citizens. The then Prime Minister Erdogan launched a constitutional referendum and won it overwhelmingly with almost 70% of the votes in favour. The majority in parliament allows him to get elected Abdullah Gul, another founding member of the party who has been out of the loop for years due to disagreements with Erdogan himself. With the 2009 local elections we see that the rise of the AKP is over. Despite losing 4 points compared to two years earlier, the party remains the leading party and controls the metropolises and nerve centers of the country.
However, the constitutional reform of 2010 was designed to stop the crisis and relaunch the party, allowing Erdogan to deal a severe blow to the military, which has always been central to the life of the country. These are the years when the European Union dossier is more open than ever and some openings increase Erdogan’s popularity in the Kurdish-majority south-east.
From prime minister to president
The peak of preferences for the AKP it arrives in 2011, with 49.8% which however corresponds to 327 members of parliament. More than 50%, less than the 341 obtained 4 years earlier, but it is the third time that the AKP has come to power alone. The administrative elections of March 2014 confirmed the AKP as the first party with 43.4% and the party’s control over the metropolises remains firm. However, this will be a key year: in August, for the first time in Turkey, the President of the Republic is elected by popular vote. After 9 years Erdogan becomes president from prime minister and with 51.8% of the preferences in his favor he closes the dispute in the first round. However the decline of the party is underway and was confirmed by the parliamentary elections in June 2015. After 13 years, the AKP confirmed itself as the first party with 40%, but lost its majority in Parliament, also thanks to the entry of the Kurds of the HDP who exceeded the 10% threshold. The government was unable to form and went back to the polls in November of the same year.
The months between the two elections will be characterized by attacks by ISIS and the Kurds of the PKK. The peace process underway between the government and the separatists has collapsed after two and a half years and Turkish military operations in the south-east of the country are being intensified. It is estimated that 862 people lost their lives in the 146 days between the two elections. A tension that plays into Erdogan’s hands and damages the HDP Kurds. The AKP returns to 49.5% also thanks to the alliance with the nationalists of the MHP. An alliance that Erdogan needs to obtain a qualified majority that will allow him to change the constitution, abolish the role of prime minister and move on to presidentialism.
After a long-awaited green light from parliament, the popular referendum took place in April 2017. The yes vote wins with 51.4% of the votes, a narrow majority yet fundamental for extending Erdogan’s political life. The mandate already served, even if not in full, is in fact canceled and he will be able to run for the presidency two more times. In June of the following year there was a vote for both the president and the parliament, which after the transition to presidentialism is now made up of 600 members.
A strong man with a weak party
Erdogan is confirmed with 52.5% in the first round, also thanks to a fragmented opposition, in parliament the AKP obtains 42% of the preferences, but once again not the majority of seats. A circumstance that forces an alliance with the MHP nationalists. Barely a year passes and we vote again, this time for the local elections. Erdogan loses Istanbul and Ankara after 25 years. The defeat is strong, after a series of appeals the Istanbul result is annulled and Istanbul goes back to the polls. The opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu it amazes everyone and after winning by a few thousand votes it spreads in the repetition, inflicting 800 thousand votes of separation on Binali Yildirim, Turkey’s last prime minister and Erdogan’s most loyalist.
The Turkish president promises revenge and is preparing extremely carefully for the 2023 elections, those of the centenary of the foundation. It is Erdogan who challenges Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a candidate who can count on the support of several parties, including pro-Kurdish ones, but who lacks charisma and does not warm hearts. It will be the then secretary of the CHP republicans who will block the path to the candidacy of Imamoglu, indicated by many as a possible challenger to Erdogan. The vote takes place on May 14th, neither of them obtains a majority and the challenge seems to be down to the final vote. In the run-off two weeks later, however, Erdogan prevailed with 52%, being elected president for the third time. However, from the first round a swooping AKP emerged, which remains the first party, but now has 35.6% of the votes and the alliance with MHP becomes vital in order to form the government.
A decline confirmed by Sunday’s data. Just 10 months after those elections, the AKP was outclassed by the CHP, losing the scepter of first party after 22 years. If, as he has hinted in recent weeks, Erdogan does not run in the next elections for the AKP, finding a candidate would be more than a dilemma. On the contrary for the opposition, which with the confirmation of Imamoglu in Istanbul yesterday already has the man ready to launch in post-Erdogan Turkey.
