Let’s try to do a Cyclical Analysis on the Eur/Usd exchange rate to understand the potential developments for the next few days.
Let’s analyze the trend of the Eur/Usd (actually the future on the Eurodollar) starting from the low of 7 December 2022, with 15-minute data updated at 3.30 pm today 16 December:
The graph was created with the Cycles Navigator software I designed.
The green dotted line represents the Eurodollar future prices of which I only consider the values between 8 am and 10 pm for Intermarket reasons. The white line represents the potential cyclical trend (valid above all for times and trends and not for forces – i.e. prices). The Yellow line at the bottom is a Cyclic Force Intensity indicator (I use about 6 different ones).
This graph represents the Intermediate Cycle (average duration around 1 month) which started at the low of 7 December. It is currently having a good push, which could continue until around December 27-28 (see yellow ellipse). Then there could be a laterality phase.
It must be said that currently the correlation between Eurodollar prices and the prospective cyclical trend (white line) is around 90%.
Just to give some price references relating to the value on Forex (which I call “critical levels” and are not true target prices) a phase of further bullish prevalence could lead towards values of 1.0700-1.0750-1.0830-1.0900 and up to 1.0950 which I currently place as a limit.
On the opposite side, a slight correction could return to 1.0600-1.0550; any values below 1.0500 could weaken the cyclical structure.
I remember that although there are cyclical structures within the financial markets, these are not and cannot be exactly regular. Therefore the analysis carried out (like all technical analysis) can only be probabilistic, in compliance with a series of rules that Cyclic Analysis provides.
