What will the new European Parliament be like? The European People’s Party (EPP) not only does it hold up, but it grows by 10 parliamentarians and will still be the first group (Forza Italia is part of it). Socialists & Democrats, the second party (the Democratic Party is part of it), lost 4 seats. As well as the liberals of Reniew Europe (Action, +Europa, Italia Viva, which however did not exceed the threshold) which fell from 102 to 79 (minus 23). The three parties together constitute the so-called «Ursula majority», which has governed Parliament so far and which loses a total of 17 seats.
The slim majority
With the current ones 400 parliamentarians (no longer 417), the “Ursula majority” therefore becomes a little more limited, given that the minimum threshold for a majority is 361 (half of the 720 parliamentarians plus one) and must be considered a physiological percentage of snipers (10-15%). For this reason it may be necessary to seek the convergence of other groups. Where to draw?
The advance of the right
Looking at both the hemicycle and the histograms, one can notice theadvance of the right, which is the novelty of these elections. Of the extreme right of Identity and Democracy (ID), – which includes the League and, abroad, Le Pen and the FPÖ which came first in Austria – which gains 9 parliamentarians. And of the more moderate populist right of ECR, dei European Conservatives and Reformistswhich includes Fratelli d’Italia, which goes from 69 to 73 parliamentarians (plus 4).
Enlargement
Von der Leyen could turn right at ECR to enlarge one’s majority (relationships with Giorgia Meloni, as we know, are excellent), but must overcome the veto of the popular Tusk and that of the Spanish socialists. The other direction in which you can look for support is the opposite direction of greens (which fell from 71 to 53 seats), against which the resistance of the EPP must be overcome. It is being negotiated and the vetoes perhaps seem surmountable. But the Ursula majority could also decide to do not spread out, focusing on the compactness of the groups and the minimization of snipers. Furthermore, the consistency of the groups could change, with parliamentarians moving from one to another: this makes the picture fluid. Although it is undeniable that Von der Leyen currently has many chances of being confirmed.
