Who wins and who loses, the political consequences of the European elections

Who wins and who loses, the political consequences of the European elections
Who wins and who loses, the political consequences of the European elections

Celebrations, disappointments, political consequences. The European elections have two winners: the Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and the secretary of the Democratic Party Elly Schlein. “Bipolarism is back,” commented the Prime Minister in response to the results of the Brothers of Italy (28.8%) and the Democratic Party (24.11%). The vote is destined to affect both the internal balance of the political forces and the two camps, the center-right to be kept united, the center-left to try to recompose. (EUROPEAN ELECTIONS – THE SPECIAL)

Brothers of Italy, Giorgia’s triumph

The Prime Minister made the European elections a test of herself and the government she leads. The test was passed with almost 29% of the votes. Fratelli d’Italia will bring twenty-five deputies to the European Parliament, thus becoming the first delegation in terms of size within Ecr, the European Conservatives. Now the prime minister has two challenges ahead of her: keeping the government majority together and influencing the negotiations on the “top jobs” of the European Union (president of the European Parliament, of the Commission, of the Council and High Representative for Foreign Affairs).

Forza Italia, the challenge won

Against all expectations of observers and perhaps of the party itself, Forza Italia survived the death of Silvio Berlusconi and achieved two objectives: touching double figures with almost 10% and overtaking Matteo Salvini’s League. The Italian secretary Antonio Tajani is holding tight to the “space between Meloni and Schlein” and relaunches: “We will reach 20% in the next political elections”.

Lega, the Vannacci effect

“They thought we were dead, but we have been alive and capable for forty years and will be for another forty years.” The secretary of the League Matteo Salvini defends the result achieved by the Northern League: 9%, just above the 8.9% of the latest policies, indicated by the leader as a bar to be overcome. At least if you look at the percentages. In absolute numbers, the party has lost 400 thousand votes since September 2022. One figure to compare with another: General Roberto Vannacci alone is worth a quarter of the party’s votes, with his 500 thousand preferences. Now Salvini (unheeded) asks the allies to remain united in Europe too, despite the allies’ belonging to different political families.

Democratic Party, team victory

Together with Avs, the Democratic Party is the only party to bring home more votes than in the last elections also in absolute terms: from 5.3 to 5.6 million. With 24% and twenty-one MEPs, Elly Schlein’s party will have the largest delegation within the European Socialists, ahead of the Spanish PSOE. For the Democrats these are the days of unity in victory. The PD secretary enjoys renewed legitimacy, which makes her more daring in the challenge against the prime minister (“Giorgia Meloni, we’re coming”). Above all, Schlein uses his new position of strength to send a message to Giuseppe Conte’s 5 Star Movement: “We hope that the result of these days has convinced everyone that it is no longer a time for divisions and vetoes, we have not had any and we do not want suffer it, without the democratic community there is no possible alternative.”

5 star movement, never so bad

The M5s emerges with broken bones from the European elections with a 9.9% which for a point of zero leaves them even below double figures. A “disappointing” result in front of which, according to behind the scenes, the leader Giuseppe Conte would have even raised the possibility of resigning to the big Five Star Movement (publicly evoked only by Davide Casaleggio, who has now been away from the Movement for years). The anemic percentage of the proportional vote has brought the debate back to life on the limit of the double mandate which left all the most well-known faces of the M5s off the lists.

Green and Left Alliance, beyond expectations

The party of Nicola Fratoianni and Angelo Bonelli celebrates 6.7% of votes, made possible by 500 thousand more votes compared to the latest policies. The political force considers the bet on Ilaria Salis to have been won, as she brought in 113 thousand preferences. Now both leaders are asking – supported by a higher percentage – that the opposition parties sit around the same table as soon as possible.

United States of Europe and Action, divided we lose

They both lost, Carlo Calenda and Matteo Renzi. The United States of Europe purpose list (Italy alive, +Europa and smaller lists) came close to the threshold with 3.8%, while Action stopped at 3.3%. In the defeat, only mutual accusations remain as to who is to blame for the lack of unity that contributed to leaving the two centrist forces out of the European Parliament.

in-depth analysis

EU Parliament, how the seats change after the latest elections

 
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