One week to reach an agreement on the release of a group of hostages and a ceasefire or Israel will launch a large military operation in Rafah, on the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. This, according to the Wall Street Journal, is the ultimatum launched by Israel to Hamas, while the final opinion of the Palestinian militiamen on an Egyptian proposal for mediation has been awaited for days.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres is alarmed: “For the good of the people of Gaza, for the hostages and their families, for the region and for the whole world – he wrote in X – I strongly encourage the leadership of Israel and of Hamas to reach an agreement. Otherwise the situation could worsen exponentially.” To facilitate an agreement, CIA chief William Burns arrived unexpectedly in Cairo yesterday.
The agreement formula is incredibly elaborate. According to what has been leaked, there is talk of the gradual (and unnerving) release of the 133 hostages in exchange for a ceasefire, also gradual, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. The first phase is humanitarian and involves the release only of elderly, women and wounded hostages. But Hamas wants a mass return of the Palestinian population to the north of the Strip and requires international guarantees that the second phase ends with a permanent ceasefire: that is, that the political survival of Hamas in the Strip is guaranteed after seven months of war: a scenario which the Netanyahu government rejects.
Other disagreements concern the number of Palestinian prisoners (including arch-terrorists sentenced to life in prison) that Israel should release for each hostage. Netanyahu’s nationalist partners demand a hard line. Itamar Ben Gvir issued a public ultimatum to the prime minister to “be careful” about accepting concessions of this kind. Bezalel Smotrich was outraged that international mediators could even think of granting guarantees “to the Nazi Yihia Sinwar”. “It would mean – he warned – laying the foundations for a new Hamas massacre”. What to do then? “We must march on Rafah with all our strength – he exclaimed – until the destruction of Hamas.”
A move that would put Tel Aviv in conflict with the USA, which fears a huge humanitarian crisis, and in opposition to Egypt, according to which during the fighting hundreds of thousands of Palestinians could attempt to flee en masse to the Sinai, after since October 7, 100 thousand Palestinians have already left the Strip. An opinion poll showed that 54 percent of Israelis believe an agreement for the release of hostages is a priority and that only 38 percent would instead like a decisive military operation in Rafah. 47 percent think the leader
centrist Benny Gantz is preferable as prime minister to Netanyahu, who now enjoys only 33 percent of support. Gantz’s party would now have 31 seats (of the 120 in the Knesset) and the Likud only 19.
However, Netanyahu displays total confidence in his ability to survive politically and in recent days he has been circulating the rumor that he will return to run for prime minister in the next elections. If they are not brought forward, they should take place in the autumn of 2026. But in the meantime, tensions are growing between the prime minister and the military leaders. They complain that the war in Gaza has lost its initial impetus and that in the meantime Hamas is gradually regaining control on the ground. Even if an operation in Rafah were successful, they observe, the more general question of the future administration of the Strip would remain unresolved.
