The Autonomy Bill is law after the session in the Chamber. But the opposition is already thinking of a repeal referendum to cancel it. And Giorgia Meloni risks the Renzi effect. While according to polls the reform desired by Roberto Calderoli and the League is appreciated in the North but disliked in the South. And this could have an important weight in the outcome of a possible popular consultation. However, for implementation it will be necessary to wait for the definition of the Essential Performance Levels (Lep). The government has two years because it must measure the perimeter of the services to be guaranteed throughout the national territory. And then decide how to finance them in case the Regions are unable to do so. As? Having ruled out the possibility of doing so with debt, there are only two options left: spending cuts or new taxes.
What is the Autonomy Bill
Regional or Differentiated Autonomy consists in the recognition by the State of the legislative autonomy of the Regions with ordinary Statute on matters which today fall under concurrent competence. The list of subjects includes: Health, education, university, research, work, social security, justice of the peace, cultural heritage, landscape, environment, territorial governance, infrastructure, civil protection, water and maritime state property, foreign trade, cooperatives , energy, business support, digital communication, local authorities, relations with the European Union. Based on the decisions of the individual regions, in each territory the State could leave the individual body with the right to hire teachers, manage railways, rivers and coasts, choose which support to provide or not to businesses and decide its own international relations. With the Lep the richest will be able to withhold up to 9 billion in taxes.
The tax residue
The acts of understanding between the State and the Regions will open up the possibility for the richest to retain their tax residue, i.e. the difference between what they pay and what they receive in terms of public spending. This would benefit some territories to the detriment of others. According to a Bankitalia calculation, the most advantaged regions are Lombardy (with 5,090 euros for each resident), Emilia-Romagna (2,811), Veneto (2,680), Piedmont (1,006), Tuscany (852), Lazio (789) and Valle d’Aosta. ‘Aosta (231). Overall, the North would have an extra 2,715 euros per inhabitant, perhaps for education and healthcare, the Center 514 while the South would lose 2,451 each. The share of Irpef and VAT that could withhold Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy and Veneto according to Svimez amounts to 9 billion in total.
The Essential Performance Levels (Lep)
The key word of the reform is Lep, or the Essential Levels of Performance that the State must guarantee throughout the national territory also with regional differentiated autonomy. On issues such as healthcare and public transport, the State has to decide what the minimum levels of benefits are. Already today, with the LEAs (Essential Levels of Assistance), essential benefits and services lag behind in the South compared to the North. In some regions of Southern Italy the Lea score is 60% lower than in other territories. The Regions that are most advanced in the application of the Lea are those that have asked for greater autonomy: Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto. The Lep also includes the protection of the environment and the ecosystem and the production of energy. While with greater legislative power there is also a risk of around twenty different school systems.
The abrogation referendum
The entire opposition wants to promote a repeal referendum against the Autonomy Bill. But we are also thinking of a series of appeals to the Constitutional Court by the governors of the southern regions. And so the trap could bring forward the popular vote. Furthermore, a referendum on Autonomy (like the one on the premiership) could turn into the trap that made Renzi fall for Meloni. In fact, all the opposition parties have announced that they want to participate in collecting signatures to call a referendum: from the Democratic Party to the M5s, from Avs to IV, passing through Action and More Europe.
The association “La via maestra”, which brings together over 100 organisations, including the CGIL, also announced the collection of signatures. The main road, recalling that it brought «hundreds of thousands of people to the streets on 7 October 2023 in Rome and last 25 May in Naples», already calls «for the mobilization of citizens and citizens of all the Regions against the approved law and hopes that a large promotional committee be formed to collect signatures leading to the referendum for the repeal of the Calderoli law”.
The polls
The possible popular consultation will be influenced by the understanding of how and to what extent the reform will guarantee services such as healthcare, schools and transport throughout Italy. «We have tested the population’s approval of differentiated autonomy and it is patchy», pollster Nicola Piepoli reports to ANSA, according to which a lot «will depend a lot on how the question is formulated and on the information disseminated among citizens» . For my colleague Roberto Weber (Ixè) «on differentiated autonomy we will have a country divided in two. A slight prevalence of the opposites is possible. The real issue will be turnout.”
The quorum
A serious unknown for reaching the quorum, also underlined by Lorenzo Pregliasco, who underlines the great abstentionism recorded at the last European elections: «It is a law that is read very differently between the north and the south». Who «fears being disadvantaged and marginalized. On the other hand, in the South turnout is often lower so focusing only on the Southern vote would be a difficult challenge to overcome.” Antonio Noto, on the other hand, recently carried out a survey for Repubblica: «45% of citizens are against it, 35% are in favor and 20% cannot express an opinion. Breaking down the data by geographical area, in the north those in favor prevail but slightly (42% in favour, 35% against), in the south those against prevail by a lot (57% against, 25% in favour)”. And the center? «It expresses an opinion closer to the South».
