EU, Meloni and that narrow path between Orban and the Popolari

During these months, there have been frequent rumors that have brought the figure of the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, closer to that of the nationalist Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban. There actually seems to be good blood between the two, despite some different views on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in addition to the issue concerning the new appointments for the leaders of the European Union. The European Council of 27 and 28 June will be fundamental to establish a new leadership capable of changing what up to now have been the European political paradigms. For the occasion, Orban has already chosen the three countries with which he would like to agree on a common project: France, Germany and Italy, as well as the states closest to the continental conformity imagined by the Hungarian President. Yesterday’s meeting between the two leaders at Palazzo Chigi was fundamental in establishing common views and possibly smoothing out the edges of disagreements, which keep them on two different wavelengths on a strategic level. On the other hand, it seems that Meloni is now being courted by two European political areas: the popular would like to tear her away at all costs from the possible alliance with the Identity and Tradition grouping, while the latter see in her the possibility of changing the European institutions to break down the progressive legacy.

Speaking of disputes, about three weeks ago, the American magazine entitled «The Economist» dedicated its cover to the three currently most important female figures in Europe: from the left immortalized in profile the outgoing president of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, the whose second term may not be safe at all. Centrally, Giorgia Meloni and immediately next to her, on the right and always in profile, Marine Le Pen of the Rassemblement National. In short, there is no shortage of alternatives for the prime minister, who knows if it will be Orban himself who will bring the ECR’s conservative alignment closer towards a strongly identitarian rather than liberal-popular political line. Now in Brussels, especially in the social democratic coalitions, the concern of being swept away by the strong wind of the European right is dawning, especially by virtue of the new presidency of the European Council, which will now pass into the hands of Hungary. Giorgia Meloni will therefore also have to choose based on the roles already pre-established, in fact there is no certainty that the Italian prime minister will decide to choose the EPP, especially now that Meloni’s decision-making role is taking on great importance in European politics. In the event that Orban succeeds in his mediations, the conservative and nationalist factions in the EU will have a fundamental role in a changing of the guard in the name of innovation: Germany, France, Italy and Hungary seem to have very similar projects on the migratory front, demographic and socio-economic. These intersections could in fact be the backbone of an alliance that is difficult to break. In particular, the People’s Party should at least consider the option of remaining impartial for fear of losing consensus, since an alliance with the European left would risk betraying the intentions of the electorate.

Given Orban’s new proposals, perhaps Meloni will have the task of convincing the rest of the ECR members to follow her in the next adventure in the EU. This task does not seem too difficult to carry out, except for a few obstacles which could prove to be a small thorn in the side of the agreements. As established by Orban during yesterday’s double press conference “we cannot be part of a political family that includes a Romanian party that is anti-Hungarian” referring to the conservative Aur faction. Behind Viktor Orban’s search for a link with Giorgia Meloni, there is also an attempt to stem the rise of the Hungarian prime minister’s national opponent, Peter Magyar, belonging to the EPP group. A move that tends to politically bury a decidedly annoying request for the Hungarian President’s national purposes. From the joint declarations of the two prime ministers, a very clear closeness on many topics can be seen. «We are satisfied with the level of cooperation achieved especially in the Balkans – a region that both Italy and Hungary consider strategic» said Meloni. And again: «With Viktor in any case we reaffirmed our undisputed support for the sovereignty, independence and integrity of Ukraine».