ANCONA Do you notice me more (at the polls) if it rains or shines? One has to paraphrase Nanni Moretti from “Ecce Bombo”, uncertain whether or not to go to a party, to summarize the eternal dilemma on the effect of the weather on voter turnout. The latest bulletins from the Agrometeo Amap service confirm stable weather for this election weekend and thermal values still growing throughout the Central and Southern part of Italy, with the heat appearing in the central hours.
Highs above 30
In the Marche region both today and tomorrow maximum temperatures of around 30 degrees (and even above) and beautiful sunny weather are expected. Only between the afternoon and evening of tomorrow, brief and isolated showers in the hinterland cannot be completely ruled out. Two typical days by the sea, therefore, those in which the people of the Marche region today (from 3pm to 11pm) and tomorrow (from 7am to 11pm) will also be called to vote for the European elections and, in 148 of the 225 Municipalities, also for the administrative elections .
It is difficult to predict the impact of this early summer on voter turnout, which has been progressively declining for years, whether it rains, winds or shines. Is a beautiful sunny day – which encourages you to go to the beach – or clouds on the horizon that threaten rain, more discouraging from casting ballots? It is certainly not just the weather that weighs heavily, given that abstention from the polls – fueled by disaffection from politics even more than by the vagaries of the weather – is a phenomenon that is anything but seasonal.
The post Covid
At the elections of March 3, 2018, after a week of snow and frost, 77% of voters in the Marche region voted. At the European elections in May 2019, combined with the administrative elections, turnout fell to 62.1%. In the last Regional elections of 20-21 September 2020, won by the centre-right with Acquaroli, just under 6 out of 10 voters voted (59.8%) despite the return to the polls being open on Mondays due to Covid. Even the in-between seasons aren’t helpful. At the 2022 elections, on Sunday 25 September, turnout recorded a collapse, with a regional figure of 68.39%, 9 points less than the equivalent election round of 2018.
Under the rain
Last year, in the administrative elections in 15 municipalities in the Marche region, including the regional capital, in the first round of 14-15 May there was a vote with a yellow alert from the Civil Protection due to storm risk and hydrogeological criticality throughout the region, promptly translated into heavy rainfall which in the aftermath of the vote caused flooding and landslides especially in the central north of the region. The turnout was 57.01%, in Ancona 55%, with a further decline to 51.8% two weeks later, in the run-off.
Keeping above the psychological threshold of 50%, preventing abstentionism from becoming the absolute majority party, is also one of the objectives of this electoral round which combines the European elections with the local elections in two thirds of the municipalities in the Marche region. Five years ago, in the same electoral combination, the turnout in the Marche region reached 62.14%, with a peak of 69% in the province of Pesaro Urbino. Other times?
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